The 1944 Cuba–Florida hurricane (also known as the 1944 San Lucas hurricane and the 1944 Sanibel Island hurricane) was a large Category 4 tropical cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale that caused widespread damage across the western Caribbean Sea and Southeastern United States in October 1944. It inflicted over US$100 million in damage and caused at least 318 deaths, the majority of fatalities occurring in Cuba. One study suggested that an equivalent storm in 2018 would rank among the costliest U.S. hurricanes. The full extent of the storm's effects remains unclear due to a dearth of conclusive reports from rural areas of Cuba. The unprecedented availability of meteorological data during the hurricane marked a turning point in the United States Weather Bureau's ability to forecast tropical cyclones.
The disturbance began suddenly over the western Caribbean Sea, strengthening into a tropical storm on October 12 within hours of initial development. It intensified into a hurricane the next day, with a brief but slow westward path bringing it near Grand Cayman. There, the storm produced rough surf and torrential rainfall for several days, destroying all of the Cayman Islands' crops and damaging coastal property; the storm proved to be the rainiest hurricane in Grand Cayman's history. On October 16, the developing hurricane made a sharp turn northward and accelerated. It made landfall on western Cuba two days later at peak strength with winds of , making it a Category 4 hurricane. Cuba, hardest hit by the storm, saw at least 300 people killed and suffered extensive damage inflicted by winds and storm surge, especially in the Havana area. Numerous ships sank in Havana Harbor amid agitated waters and marine debris.
A gradual weakening trend began after the hurricane crossed Cuba, attenuated by the storm's large size. It crossed the Dry Tortugas as a major hurricane on October 18 before making a final landfall near Sarasota, Florida, as a Category 2 hurricane the following day. Although property damage was considerable in the Florida Keys and throughout the Florida coasts, the bulk of the storm's damage toll arose from significant losses of crops in the state's citrus-producing regions, curtailing record harvests. Eighteen people were killed in the state, half from the loss of a ship in Tampa Bay. The storm continued to weaken as it passed over Florida and the Southeastern United States, producing heavy rains throughout the U.S. East Coast and gusty winds that led to widespread power outages. On October 20, the storm transitioned into an extratropical cyclone and tracked northeastwards along the U.S. East Coast. The system was last distinguishable east of Greenland four days later.
Meteorological history
The origin of this major hurricane was traced to a tropical disturbance that moved into the western Caribbean Sea by October 11, 1944. The system was initially broad; no observations of strong winds or low pressures indicated a tropical cyclone's presence. Nearby weather reports that day nonetheless suggested tropical cyclogenesis was underway. Based on aerial and surface observations, the Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project determined in 2013 that the system organized into a tropical depression by 12:00 UTC on October 12. Operationally, the first evidence of a developing cyclone was a report of rough seas later that evening by a ship east of the Swan Islands. The incipient system tracked towards the north, quickly intensifying; tropical storm intensity was attained just six hours after the initial tropical depression classification, and it strengthened into a hurricane by 18:00 UTC on October 13.
Two days later, the slow-moving hurricane took a more westward trajectory and passed south of Grand Cayman—sustained winds on the island peaked at with a gust to , while the air pressure bottomed out at 984 mbar (hPa; 29.06 inHg). Between October 16–17, the storm made an abrupt turn towards the north along the 83rd meridian west and continued to strengthen, gradually accelerating northwards. It became a major hurricane by 18:00 UTC on October 17 and reached Category 4 intensity six hours later as it passed over the western portion of Isla de la Juventud, Cuba. The following morning, the cyclone reached its peak intensity with winds of , a value extrapolated by the reanalysis project based on a pressure of 937 mbar (hPa; 27.67 inHg) observed on the northern coast of Cuba; this was the lowest pressure measured in connection with the hurricane. Maintaining peak strength, it made landfall on mainland Cuba at around 08:00 UTC on October 18, crossing the narrowest part of the island west of Havana before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico.
The hurricane's interaction with Cuba caused the winds to taper slightly, bringing the storm down from its peak intensity to a Category 3 hurricane over the Straits of Florida. At 21:00 UTC on October 18, the eye passed over the Dry Tortugas, producing two hours of calm over the islands. During its passage, the storm had winds estimated at . It had grown considerably in areal extent, with a radius of maximum wind nearly twice as large as climatologically expected. Gradual weakening continued as the storm accelerated towards the north-northeast. This lessened the storm's winds to —a Category 2 hurricane—as it made landfall just south of Sarasota, Florida, at 07:00 UTC on October 19. Due to the cyclone's large size, its weakening over the Florida peninsula was anomalously slow and at times underestimated by the model typically used to estimate the inland decay of tropical cyclones. The storm was still a hurricane when it passed east of Tampa Bay and over Central Florida later that day; a pressure of 967 mbar (hPa; 28.55 inHg) recorded at a weather station in Tampa, Florida, was a record low for the site in its over-50-year observational history. The large hurricane finally weakened to tropical storm status south of Jacksonville, Florida, on the afternoon of October 19. It straddled the Georgia coast before pressing farther inland over South Carolina. As it did so, the storm began to become more baroclinic, transitioning into a fully extratropical cyclone over South Carolina on October 20. These extratropical remnants maintained their composure, emerging over the Atlantic along the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states and passing over Nova Scotia on October 21. Some re-intensification occurred as the system traversed the Labrador Sea and Greenland before it merged with the Icelandic Low on October 24.
Warnings and preparations
The United States Weather Bureau issued 58 storm warnings and advisories via its hurricane warning centers in Miami, Florida, Washington, D.C., and Boston, Massachusetts. The 1944 Cuba–Florida hurricane was the first time widespread rawinsonde data were available for a fully developed hurricane; the first complete atmospheric sounding from the center of a tropical cyclone was later collected by a rawinsonde in the eye of the storm as it crossed Tampa. The head of the Weather Bureau's hurricane forecast office in Miami, Grady Norton, used the information from these upper-tropospheric observations to accurately predict the storm's general northward trajectory, despite the presence of a high-pressure area at the surface that would conventionally prevent a northerly track. The accuracy of his forecasts surprised his colleagues and motivated the expansion of the American rawinsonde network:
Cuba evacuated residents from its western low-lying coasts. The storm was considered the strongest hurricane to threaten the island nation since that of October 1926. Three thousand people sought refuge at El Capitolio, the nation's capitol building. U.S. soldiers stationed at San Antonio de los Baños Airfield were moved to the Cuban army's headquarters in Havana. Pan American World Airways canceled flights to and from Cuba in advance of the hurricane. Storm warnings in the United States were first issued for the Florida Keys on the morning of October 16. The Weather Bureau also noted a serious threat to western Cuba, the Yucatán Channel, and the Yucatán Peninsula. The first hurricane warnings were issued on the morning of October 18. At the height of the storm's impacts on Florida, hurricane warnings encompassed the Florida coast from Cedar Key on the Gulf coast to Fernandina Beach on the peninsula's Atlantic coast.
The Red Cross chapter in Key West, Florida, initiated emergency operations on the afternoon of October 17. Of the hurricane evacuees throughout the state, 35,000 stayed at Red Cross shelters. Excluding Key West, 90 percent of residents on the Florida Keys evacuated in advance of the storm. U.S. Army and Navy aircraft and non-essential personnel were evacuated from Florida. In the Miami area, flights were grounded and schools were closed. A total of sixty schools and public buildings in Miami were repurposed as shelters by the Red Cross. The University of Miami suspended classes for a day. U.S. Coast Guard personnel assisted in storm preparations, evacuating small craft and allocating vehicles for municipal emergency use. Schools were closed in Pinellas County in advance of the storm and repurposed as potential shelters, though ultimately none were used. Fort Myers served as a place of refuge for soldiers stationed at nearby Buckingham Army Airfield and surrounding areas around the city. Storm preparations also began farther inland, with relief operations and evacuations in the Orlando area coordinated between the Red Cross and the Army Air Forces Tactical Center.
On October 19, 125 people were evacuated from Sullivan's Island and Isle of Palms in South Carolina and housed at a county hall. "Hurricane Cuts Brunswick Off", Page 1 "Hurricane", Page 4 Residents of Avon, North Carolina, were evacuated to Manteo and Elizabeth City late that day in advance of the weakened storm's approach. Five hundred people evacuated Long Beach Island off mainland New Jersey ahead of the hurricane's extratropical stages.
Impact In the Monthly Weather Review, the United States Weather Bureau enumerated 318 deaths from the hurricane, noting that reports possibly indicating more deaths were yet to be received from Cuba and the Cayman Islands. The hurricane caused over $100 million in damage across its path.
Caribbean Sea 1 794.8 31.29 Unnamed, 1944 Grand Cayman Island 2 577 22.72 Alberto, 2006 Owen Roberts International Airport 3 552.2 21.74 Isidore, 2002 Cayman Brac 4 451.4 17.77 Paloma, 2008 Cayman Brac 5 308.4 12.14 Ivan, 2004 Grand Cayman Island 6 292.1 11.50 Hattie, 1961 Grand Cayman Island 7 229.1 9.02 Nicole, 2010 Owen Roberts International Airport 8 165.6 6.52 Michelle, 2001 Grand Cayman Island The hurricane brought squally conditions and rough surf to the Swan Islands over six days, the strongest measured gust reaching . Three days of hurricane conditions destroyed all crops on the Cayman Islands. Rainfall totals reached on Grand Cayman—the highest rainfall total caused by a hurricane in the island's history. Red Bay and Prospect were flooded by the precipitation. Heavy seas destroyed many wooden shoreline installations including docks and piers, and extensive beach erosion exposed limestone outcrops. Three small ships were either lost or destroyed in the Caymans; one ship was later found aground off Pinar del Río in Cuba. Winds in Georgetown reached , cutting communications between the city and the outside world. Considerable road damage was reported throughout Grand Cayman. E. S. Parsons, the clerk of the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands, said the storm was Grand Cayman's "severest hurricane since 1876".