In the 2019 Canadian federal election, there were 78 members of Parliament elected to the House of Commons from the province of Quebec, making up 23.1% of all members of the House.

Background

Timeline

+ Changes in Quebec seats held (2015–2019) Seat Before Change Date Member Party Reason Date Member PartySaint-LaurentJanuary 31, 2017Stéphane DionResigned to enter diplomatic postApril 3, 2017Emmanuella LambropoulosLac-Saint-JeanAugust 9, 2017Denis LebelResigned to accept a position in the private sectorOctober 23, 2017Richard HébertChicoutimi—Le FjordDecember 1, 2017Denis LemieuxResignedJune 18, 2018Richard MartelTerrebonneFebruary 28, 2018Michel BoudriasResigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine OuelletRivière-du-NordFebruary 28, 2018Rhéal FortinResigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine OuelletMirabelFebruary 28, 2018Simon MarcilResigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine OuelletRepentignyFebruary 28, 2018Monique PauzéResigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine OuelletBécancour—Nicolet—SaurelFebruary 28, 2018Louis PlamondonResigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine OuelletJolietteFebruary 28, 2018Gabriel Ste-MarieResigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine OuelletMontcalmFebruary 28, 2018Luc ThériaultResigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine OuelletTerrebonneJune 6, 2018Michel BoudriasRejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus following the resignation of party leader Martine OuelletMirabelJune 6, 2018Simon MarcilRejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus following the resignation of party leader Martine OuelletOutremontAugust 3, 2018Thomas MulcairResignedFebruary 25, 2019Rachel BendayanBeauceAugust 23, 2018Maxime BernierResigned from the Conservative caucus, and changed affiliation to newly created People's PartySeptember 14, 2018Rivière-du-NordSeptember 17, 2018Rhéal FortinRejoined the Bloc Québécois caucusRepentignySeptember 17, 2018Monique PauzéRejoined the Bloc Québécois caucusBécancour—Nicolet—SaurelSeptember 17, 2018Louis PlamondonRejoined the Bloc Québécois caucusJolietteSeptember 17, 2018Gabriel Ste-MarieRejoined the Bloc Québécois caucusMontcalmSeptember 17, 2018Luc ThériaultRejoined the Bloc Québécois caucusSaint-Léonard—Saint-MichelJanuary 29, 2019Nicola Di IorioResignedLongueuil—Saint-HubertAugust 16, 2019Pierre NantelExpelled from NDP caucus following revelations that he had been in private talks to run for another political party in the next general election

Opinion polling

Polling firm Last dateof polling Link LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Other Marginof error Samplesize Polling method Lead 2019 election 34.2 16.0 10.7 32.5 4.4 1.5 0.5 4,284,338 1.7 Leger 31 16 14 31 6 2 - ±1.79 3000 Online 0 Forum Research 33 15 10 31 7 2 2 ±3 pp 1001 IVR 2 Leger 31 16 13 29 7 3 1 - 1014 Online 2 Mainstreet Research 35 17 11 27 7 3 - ±3.75 pp 685 IVR 8 Mainstreet Research 37 18 10 22 9 3 - ±3.7 pp 694 IVR 15 Nanos Research 35.3 17.0 13.3 22.0 10.1 1.8 0.6 ±3.6 pp 828 telephone 13.3 Leger 36 21 7 22 10 3 1 ±3.9 pp 837 Online 14 Mainstreet Research 33.0 24.8 7.9 18.6 9.5 - - unknown unknown IVR 8.2 Leger 34 23 7 20 11 4 1 ±3.39 pp 837 Online 11 Forum Research 37 21 8 18 9 4 ±3 pp 1219 IVR 16 Forum Research 30 28 9 15 10 4 3 ±3 pp 977 IVR 2 Forum Research 32 25 9 18 10 4 2 ±3 pp 1,471 IVR 7 Leger 35 26 7 17 9 4 ±3.08 pp 1,014 Online 9 Leger 39 21 8 21 5 6 ±3.09 pp 1,007 Online 18 CROP 42 27 10 12 8 0 1,000 Online 15 Leger 43 16 19 16 6 2 ±3 pp 1,002 Online 27 2015 election 35.7 16.7 25.4 19.4 2.2 0.7 4,241,487 19

Predictions

Campaign On August 9, André Parizeau, Bloc candidate for Ahuntsic-Cartierville, created attention over his past communist affiliations as Leader of the Parti communiste du Québec (PCQ). Parizeau disavowed the PCQ in order to be accepted as candidate.

On October 2, a man in Montreal, Quebec, told Jagmeet Singh NDP leader to cut off his turban to look more Canadian during a campaign stop. Singh replied that Canadians "look like all sorts of people" before walking off.

In October, the Bloc Québécois called on Quebeckers to vote for candidates "who resemble you" (" des gens qui nous ressemblent ") in the election, prompting NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to denounce the message as unacceptable and divisive. In his closing statement during Wednesday's French-language debate, Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet called on voters to "opt for men and women who resemble you, who share your values, who share your concerns and who work for your interests, and only for the interests of Quebeckers." The Bloc has said the comment has nothing to do with someone's background or religion but with Québécois values. During the English debate, Blanchet called the translation of his words dishonest and mentioned that the same words were used by Igniatieff in 2011 and Mulcair in 2015.

On October 10, Le Journal de Montréal discovered that four BQ candidates had made anti-Islam and racist social media posts. A Bloc spokeswoman said it was up to Quebeckers to judge its candidates' social-media posts. The comments were condemned by Elizabeth May, Jagmeet Singh, Mélanie Joly and Françoise David. Later, the candidates all posted the same apology on their respective social media accounts and Yves-François Blanchet apologized for his candidates' Islamophobic and racist social media posts.

On October 13, Blanchet announced that they will not support a coalition or a party in a minority scenario. The Bloc will go issue by issue and support what is best for Quebec.

Law 21 was debated in the 2019 federal election. Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet stated this was a provincial matter and not relevant to the federal government's jurisdiction but did campaign in favour of Law 21. Although Trudeau initially spoke out against the idea of the bill in 2017, he did not take any actual action to prevent the bill from passing. During his election campaign in 2019, he avoided the topic as much as possible in order to maintain popularity in the polls within Quebec. The consensus among the 2019 candidates was that the bill was a provincial issue and they would not pursue action at a federal level if elected. Including NDP leader Jagmeet Singh who would personally be affected by the bill while in Quebec.

Premier of Quebec François Legault said Coalition Avenir Québec MNAs were not allowed to give out endorsements.

Le Devoir done a Joint Liberal/BQ endorsement.

Results The NDP lost all but one of its seats in Quebec, it was suggested that Jagmeet Singh's Sikhism may have been negatively received by voters in the context of the Quebec ban on religious symbols. It was considered the end of the 2011 "Orange Crush" under Jack Layton.

Summary +Quebec summary seat results in the 2019 Canadian federal electionPartyVotesVote %Vote SeatsSeat 1,468,603 1.4pp 5 1,387,030 13.1pp 22 684,661 0.7pp 1 464,414 14.6pp 13193,420 2.2pp 0 62,951 1.5pp 1 8,458 pp 1 14,801 pp 0 Total 4,284,338 – 1 Seat apportionment diagram:

Comparison with national results + Results by partyPartyPopular vote %Seats in caucus QC Natl. avg. 34.3 33.1 +1.2 32.4 7.6 +24.8 16.0 34.3 -18.3 10.8 16.0 -5.2 4.5 6.5 -2.0 1.5 1.6 -0.1 no caucus   Total – – –

Student vote results Student votes are mock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results.https://studentvote.ca/canada/

! colspan="2" rowspan="2" | Party ! rowspan="2" | Leader ! colspan="3" | Seats ! colspan="3" | Popular vote |- ! Elected ! % ! Δ ! Votes ! % ! Δ ()

| style="text-align: left;"| Justin Trudeau | 34 || 43.03 || 17|| 30,170 || 27.65|| 9.61

| style="text-align: left;"| Jagmeet Singh | 22 || 27.85 || 3|| 26,440|| 24.23|| 0.44

| style="text-align: left;"| Yves-François Blanchet | 12 || 15.19 || 12|| 16,181|| 14.83|| 3.34

| style="text-align: left;"| Andrew Scheer | 8 || 10.13 || 0|| 11,110|| 10.18|| 3.90

| style="text-align: left;"| Elizabeth May | 3 || 3.80 || 2|| 18,062 || 16.55|| 6.59 |- | style="background-color:gainsboro"| | colspan="2" style="text-align: left;" | Other | 0 || 0 || 0|| 4,051 || 3.71|| 0.28

| style="text-align: left;"| Maxime Bernier | 0 || 0 || 0|| 3,098 || 2.84|| 2.84 |- | colspan="3" style="text-align: left;" | Total | 78 || 100.00 || 0 || 109,112 || 100.00|| – |- | colspan="7" style="text-align: left;" | Source: Student Vote Canadahttps://studentvote.ca/results/provincial_results/33/2

Notes

References