Opinion polling for the 2024 Mexican general election

This is a list of public opinion polls relating to the 2024 Mexican general election. Polls have been carried out by various organizations and aggregated by Oraculus, the College of Specialists in Public Opinion Polling and Surveys (CEDE), Polls.mx, Bloomberg, and Expansión Política.

Graphical summary

Polling aggregations Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedLeadSheinbaumGálvezMáynezOraculusthrough May 202429 May 202453%36%11%17%CEDEthrough 28 May 202429 May 202456%33.3%10.7%22.7%Polls.mxthrough 29 May 202429 May 2024 55%31%13%24%Bloombergthrough 28 May 202429 May 2024 55.3%34%10.7%21.3%Expansión Políticathrough 28 May 202429 May 2024 53.16%33.76%10.36%19.4%Average54.5%33.6%11.2%20.9%

By candidates

Campaigning period Polls taken during the official campaigning period (1 March to 29 May 2024). Fieldwork datePolling firmSampleOthers/ UndecidedLeadSheinbaumGálvezMáynez29 May 2024LaEncuesta.mx1,80047.3%40.7%8.4%3.6%6.6%25-28 May 2024Áltica1,80050.4%38.6%9.7%1.3%11.8%25-28 May 2024AtlasIntel4,08448.2%34.9%16.1%0.8%13.3%24-26 May 2024MEBA1,00051.3%22.9%10.1%15.7%28.4%21-26 May 2024Reforma1,00055%35%10%–20%21-24 May 2024Mitofsky1,20050%27.4%10.4%12.2%22.6%19 May 2024Third presidential debate held.11-13 May 2024LaEncuesta.mx1,80047.7%40.1%9%3.2%7.6%11 May 2024C&E Mexico60055%32%13%–23%3-6 May 2024Mitofsky1,60048.9%28.1%10.3%12.7%20.8%4-5 May 2024TResearch2,00052.4%29%8.1%10.5%23.4%2-5 May 2024Áltica2,50050%40%7%2%10%30 April 2024C&E Mexico60055%34%11%–21%29-30 April 2024LaEncuesta.mx1,80048.9%40.4%6.9%3.8%8.5%28 April 2024Second presidential debate held.27-28 April 2024TResearch2,00053%28.5%7.3%11.2%24.5%26 April 2024MetricsMX1,20054.4%21.3%12.8%11.5%33.1%17-24 April 2024El Financiero1,36049%32%8%11%17%20-21 April 2024TResearch2,00053.8%30.1%4.4%11.7%23.7%19-21 April 2024MEBA1,50051.2%24.6%10.7%13.5%26.6%14-16 April 2024LaEncuesta.mx1,80049.7%40.8%6.3%3.2%8.9%14 April 2024C&E Mexico60059%33%8%–26%13-14 April 2024TResearch2,00054.3%30.2%4%11.5%24.1%11-14 April 2024GEA-ISA1,07049%34%6%11%15%11-14 April 2024Áltica1,00051%39%5%5%12%8-14 April 2024Enkoll2,59054%30%7%9%24%10-13 April 2024Mitofsky1,60051.4%26.7%9.3%12.6%24.7%7 April 2024First presidential debate held.3-5 April 2024LaEncuesta.mx1,80050.7%40.9%4.6%3.8%9.8%1 April 2024El Financiero1,20051%34%7%8%17%28-31 March 2024Áltica1,00050%38%6%6%12%25 March 2024MetricsMX1,20057.1%23.7%4.4%14.8%33.4%22-24 March 2024MEBA1,500 53.5%28.9%6%11.6%24.6%14-17 March 2024De las Heras Demotecnia1,40063%15%2%20%48%14-17 March 2024Mitofsky1,60050.5%28.8%4.8%15.9%21.7%12-14 March 2024LaEncuesta.mx1,80049.4%41.6%5%4%7.8%11-14 March 2024Áltica1,00051%37%6%6%14%

Precampaigning and intercampaigning periods Polls taken during the precampaigning period (20 November 2023 to 18 January 2024) and the intercampaigning period (19 January to 29 February 2024). Fieldwork datePolling firmSampleOthers/ UndecidedLeadSheinbaumGálvezMáynezGarcía27-28 February 2024MetricsMX1,20061%20%4.4%–14.6%41%24-28 February 2024Enkoll81453%29%3%–15%24%23-25 February 2024El Financiero1,00050%33%8%–8%17%22 February 2024Máynez officially registers his candidacy.17-20 February 2024Mitofsky1,60051.6%27.8%5.1%–15.5%23.8%20 February 2024Gálvez officially registers her candidacy.16-19 February 2024LaEncuesta.mx1,80050.4%40.9%3.9%–4.8%9.5%15-19 February 2024De las Heras Demotecnia1,40067%15%2%–16%52%18 February 2024Sheinbaum officially registers her candidacy.10-14 February 2024Áltica1,00051%35%4%–10%16%3-5 February 2024LaEncuesta.mx1,80050.8%39.9%4.2%–5.1%10.9%28-30 January 2024Áltica1,00050%35%5%–9%15%19-22 January 2024Enkoll83454%27%3%–16%27%12-15 January 2024MEBA1,50068.1%26.6%5.3%–10.3%41.5%13-14 January 2024TResearch2,00052%27.1%5%–15.3%25.5%13 January 2024Rubrum1,20053.5%28.9%4.5%–13.1%24.1%10-14 January 2024De las Heras Demotecnia1,40066%14%2%–18%52%10 January 2024Máynez becomes the sole precandidate for MC.9 January 2024INE announces that no independent candidates collected enough signatures to be eligible.18 December 2023C&E Mexico600 58%33%–9%–25%10–15 December 2023Áltica1,000 48%36%–6%7%14%7–10 December 2023Mitofsky1,600 50.2%25.3%–6.3%18.2%24.9%2–5 December 2023De las Heras Demotecnia1,400 65%13%–6%16%52%5 December 2023C&E Mexico 600 55%36%–7%1%19%2 December 2023García withdraws his candidacy.25–28 November 2023Enkoll800 49%23%–17%11%26%22–28 November 2023Reforma1,00046%25%–14%15%21%24–25 November 2023El Financiero1,00050%31%–7%12%19%20 November 2023Gálvez becomes the sole precandidate for Fuerza y Corazón por Mexico.

Prior to the electoral period Polls taken before the precampaigning period (20 November 2023), but after the winners of the internal selection processes of both major coalitions were named. Fieldwork datePolling firmSampleOthers/ UndecidedLeadSheinbaumGálvezGarcíaVerástegui19 November 2023Sheinbaum becomes the sole precandidate for Sigamos Haciendo Historia.17 November 2023Garcia becomes the sole precandidate for MC.10–13 November 2023De las Heras Demotecnia1,400 66%14%6%2%9%52%19–28 October 2023El Financiero1,620 46%28%8%–18%18%20–24 October 2023Enkoll1,008 50%27%15%–8%23%16 October 2023MEBA1,500 60.8%26.7%9.7%2.8%–34.1%4 October 2023Universal1,200 50%20%7%4%19%30%19–25 September 2023Covarrubias y Asociados1,50064%17%6%–13%41%25 September 2023De las Heras Demotecnia1,20068%14%4%2%12%54%16–21 September 2023GEA-ISA1,07053%34%7%2%4%19%13 September 2023Enkoll1,20555%22%6%0%17%33%6 September 2023Sheinbaum wins the internal selection process of the MORENA-PT-PVEM alliance.31 August 2023Gálvez wins the internal selection process of Frente Amplio por México.

Possible candidates Fieldwork datePolling firm OthersLeadSheinbaumEbrardColosioAnayaCreelTellezdel MazoRuiz Massieude la MadridNoroñaJune 2023Mexico Elige35.9%–8.4%–24.5%––7.9%–17.3%2.1% Velasco, 2.1% De Hoyos11.4%–35.9%–––19.5%––16.4%22.1%1.8% Velasco, 1.3% Mancera, 1.8% De Hoyos, 1.3% Delgado16.4%February 2023El Financiero45%–9%18%––14%–––N/A27%October 2022El Financiero44%–9%18%––13%–––N/A26%August 2022Reforma34%–28%16%––10%–––N/A6%May 2022Reforma33%–26%13%––7%–––N/A7%December 2021Reforma31%–27%16%––10%–––N/A11%

By alliances PollsterDateSample sizeMargin of errorSHHFCMMCOthers/ UndecidedLeadC&E Mexico18 December 20236004%59%34%7%–25%CELAG18 August 20232,0002.19%45.4%18.2%10.5%25.9%27.2%

References