2026 United States Senate election in Iowa

The 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Iowa. Republican congresswoman Ashley Hinson and Democratic state representative Josh Turek are the nominees for their respective parties. Republican incumbent Joni Ernst is not seeking a third term.

Primary elections were held on June 2. Endorsed by President Donald Trump, Hinson won the Republican nomination with 73.9% of the vote over former state senator Jim Carlin. Turek won the Democratic nomination with 62.6% of the vote over state senator Zach Wahls.

Democrats have not won a Senate election in Iowa since 2008. This is Iowa's first open Senate election to be held concurrently with an open gubernatorial election since 1968.

Background Since voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Iowa has trended increasingly Republican and is now considered a moderately to strongly red state at the federal and state level. Republican nominee Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8 percentage points, and in 2024 grew his margin to 13 percentage points. Republicans control every statewide executive office (except the state auditor's office), majorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and the entire congressional delegation.

Senator Joni Ernst was first elected in the red wave of 2014, defeating U.S. Representative Bruce Braley by about 8 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2020 defeating Theresa Greenfield by 6.5 percentage points in what was expected to be a dead heat.

In May 2025, Ernst sparked controversy after replying to a constituent upset by thousands of preventable deaths resulting from Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by responding, "Well, we all are going to die" during a town hall in north-central Iowa. She later doubled down on her controversial comment, which many observers criticized as dismissive, in a sarcastic social media apology video filmed in a cemetery. Ernst announced in September 2025 that she would not seek reelection.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Ashley Hinson, U.S. representative from (2021–present)

Eliminated in primary Jim Carlin, former state senator from the 3rd district (2017–2023) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022

Withdrawn Joshua Smith, former vice chair of the Libertarian National Committee (2022–2023) and Libertarian candidate for president in 2024

Declined Brenna Bird, Iowa attorney general (2023–present) (running for re-election; endorsed Hinson) Joni Ernst, incumbent U.S. senator (2015–present) (endorsed Hinson) Kari Lake, senior advisor to the U.S. Agency for Global Media (2025–present), nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2022, and nominee for U.S. Senate in Arizona in 2024 Zach Nunn, U.S. representative from (2023–present) (running for re-election; endorsed Hinson)

Endorsements

Fundraising Italics indicate a declined candidate. Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2026CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handJim Carlin (R)$293,966$279,387$14,578Ashley Hinson (R)$7,267,266$2,679,198$6,516,143Joni Ernst (R)$6,954,692$5,485,942$1,997,164Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error AshleyHinson JimCarlin UndecidedJMC Analytics (R)May 27–28, 2026550 (A)± 4.2%58%19%23%

Joni Ernst vs. "Someone Else" Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoniErnst SomeoneElse UndecidedVictory Insights (R)December 6–7, 2024600 (LV)–48%27%26%

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Josh Turek, state representative from the 20th district (2023–present)

Eliminated in primary Zach Wahls, state senator from the 43rd district (2019–present) and former Senate Minority Leader (2020–2023)

Did not file Bob Krause, former state representative from the 7th district (1973–1978) and perennial candidate Richard Sherzan, former state representative from the 63rd district (1979–1981) and candidate for U.S. Senate in Arizona in 2016 and 2018

Withdrawn Jackie Norris, chair of the Des Moines school board and former Chief of Staff to the First Lady of the United States (2009–2011) Nathan Sage, market director for KNIA (endorsed Turek) J. D. Scholten, state representative from the 1st district (2023–present) and nominee for in 2018 and 2020 (endorsed Turek)

Endorsements

Fundraising Italics indicate withdrawn candidate Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2026CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handNathan Sage (D)$1,432,562$1,432,459$102Josh Turek (D)$2,808,701$2,051,221$757,480Zach Wahls (D)$3,167,670$2,112,265$1,055,405Jackie Norris (D)$363,563$363,563$0J. D. Scholten (D)$213,415$205,271$8,144Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoshTurek ZachWahls Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D)May 20–21, 2026672 (LV)± 3.8%52%31%–17%Public Policy Polling (D)May 5–6, 2026764 (LV)± 3.6%53%27%–20%Public Policy Polling (D)April 23, 2026– (LV)–41%23%–36%FM3 Research (D)April 21–23, 2026600 (LV)± 4.0%48%28%–24%Bedrock PollingMarch 26, 20261,022 (LV)± 3.2%38%56%–6%FM3 Research (D)March 11–14, 2026600 (LV)± 4.0%25%34%–41%GQR (D)February 18–22, 2026605 (LV)–24%42%–34%NRSC (R)February 16–18, 20261,923 (LV)± 2.5%23%30%5%42%

Results

Libertarian primary On June 2, the Laehn campaign submitted nearly 10,000 signatures to the Iowa Secretary of State, satisfying the 3,500 signature requirement to qualify for the ballot. Laehn was added to the candidate list as the Libertarian Party's candidate. Candidates Nominee Thomas Laehn, Greene County Attorney

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2026CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handThomas Laehn (L)$42,944$37,430$5,513Source: Federal Election Commission

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportSeptember 23, 2026Decision Desk HQOctober 2, 2026The EconomistOctober 3, 2026FiftyPlusOneOctober 3, 2026Fox NewsSeptember 22, 2026Inside ElectionsOctober 1, 2026RealClearPoliticsSeptember 24, 2026Sabato's Crystal BallSeptember 22, 2026Silver BulletinOctober 3, 2026Split TicketOctober 2, 2026

Post-primary endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2026CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handAshley Hinson (R)$10,217,845$5,396,429$6,749,491Josh Turek (D)$6,276,527$3,914,213$2,362,314Thomas Laehn (L)$54,429$46,095$8,334Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated AshleyHinson (R) JoshTurek (D) Other/UndecidedMargin270toWinSeptember 22 – October 3, 2026October 3, 202646.4%48.0%5.6%Turek +1.6%Decision Desk HQthrough October 1, 2026October 3, 202644.9%46.7%8.4%Turek +1.8%FiftyPlusOnethrough October 1, 2026October 3, 202645.7%46.7%7.6%Turek +1.0%RealClearPoliticsSeptember 9 – October 1, 2026October 3, 202645.3%46.0%8.7%Turek +0.7%Silver Bulletinthrough October 1, 2026October 3, 202645.3%46.6%8.1%Turek +1.3%Average45.5%46.8%7.7%Turek +1.3%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error AshleyHinson (R) JoshTurek (D) Other UndecidedNew York Times/Siena UniversitySeptember 22 – October 1, 2026606 (LV)± 4.6%48%47%5%Rasmussen Reports (R)September 28–30, 20261,048 (LV)± 3.0%43%47%3%7%Quantus Insights (R)September 28–29, 2026738 (LV)± 3.8%47%46%2%5%49%47%–4%51%49%––Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)September 24–28, 20261,008 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%4%1,204 (RV)± 2.5%46%50%4%InsiderAdvantage (R)September 22–23, 20261,200 (LV)±2.8%46%47%3%4%Marist UniversitySeptember 17–20, 20261,050 (RV)± 4.4%42%50%2%5%Trafalgar Group (R)September 16–18, 20261,089 (LV)± 2.9%44%42%3%10%co/efficient (R)September 14–16, 2026831 (LV)± 3.4%46%42%2%9%48%43%–9%Cygnal (R)September 9–11, 2026500 (LV)± 4.4%43%43%4%10%Rasmussen Reports (R)September 8–10, 20261,031 (LV)± 3.0%40%45%4%11%YouGovSeptember 3–8, 20262,169 (RV)± 3.5%43%44%3%11%2,041 (LV)± 3.5%43%47%1%8%Emerson CollegeAugust 31 – September 1, 2026750 (LV)± 3.6%50%45%1%5%Global Strategy Group (D)August 27–31, 2026800 (LV)± 3.5%42%46%6%6%Wedgewood PollsAugust 27–29, 2026600 (LV)± 4.6%50%48%2%Abacus DataAugust 26–28, 2026323 (LV)45%54%1%500 (RV)± 4.4%46%52%2%Suffolk UniversityAugust 20–23, 2026500 (LV)± 4.4%45%41%4%10%Emerson CollegeAugust 2–4, 2026712 (LV)± 3.7%48%45%6%Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)June 23–27, 20261,003 (RV)± 3.0%46%50%4%New York Times/Siena UniversityJune 15–27, 2026600 (LV)± 4.7%48%46%5%Cygnal (R)June 16–19, 2026600 (LV)± 4.0%46%44%10%Global Strategy Group (D)June 8–11, 20261,000 (LV)± 3.1%45%47%8%Public Policy Polling (D)June 3–4, 2026557 (RV)± 4.2%46%46%7%June 2, 2026 Primary electionsEchelon Insights (R)April 3–9, 2026377 (LV)± 6.6%45%46%9%GQR (D)March 10–16, 20261,200 (LV)± 2.8%47%43%11%Change Research (D)January 8–11, 20261,108 (LV)44%41%1%14%

Ashley Hinson vs. Nathan Sage Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error AshleyHinson (R) NathanSage (D) Other UndecidedChange Research (D)January 8–11, 20261,108 (LV)44%41%1%14%

Ashley Hinson vs. Zach Wahls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error AshleyHinson (R) ZachWahls (D) Other UndecidedEchelon Insights (R)April 3–9, 2026377 (LV)± 6.6%44%46%10%GQR (D)March 10–16, 20261,200 (LV)± 2.8%47%44%9%Change Research (D)January 8–11, 20261,108 (LV)44%41%2%13%

Joni Ernst vs. Jackie Norris Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoniErnst (R) JackieNorris (D) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D)August 18–19, 2025572 (V)± 4.1%45%42%13%

Joni Ernst vs. Nathan Sage Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoniErnst (R) NathanSage (D) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D)August 18–19, 2025572 (V)± 4.1%45%41%14%

Joni Ernst vs. Josh Turek Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoniErnst (R) JoshTurek (D) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D)August 18–19, 2025572 (V)± 4.1%45%41%14%

Joni Ernst vs. Zach Wahls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoniErnst (R) ZachWahls (D) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D)August 18–19, 2025572 (V)± 4.1%43%42%15%

Joni Ernst vs. Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoniErnst (R) GenericDemocrat UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D)June 2–3, 2025568 (V)± 4.1%45%43%12%

Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GenericRepublican GenericDemocrat Undecidedco/efficient (R)September 14–16, 2026831 (LV)± 3.4%48%43%9%

Results

Notes

Partisan clients

References

External links Official campaign websites Ashley Hinson (R) Thomas Laehn (L) Josh Turek (D)