2022 United States Senate election in Florida

The 2022 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Val Demings in a landslide victory. Rubio was first elected in 2010, filling the seat of appointed Senator George LeMieux. Rubio won re-election to a third term, becoming the first Republican to do so in Florida history. Rubio was sworn in for what would be his last term in the Senate, serving from January 3, 2023, to January 21, 2025, when he assumed the office of United States Secretary of State in the second Trump administration.

The primary elections for Republicans and Democrats took place on August 23 to finalize candidates for the November election. Rubio won the uncontested Republican primary, while incumbent U.S. Representative Val Demings won the Democratic nomination.

Despite some predicting a close race early, Rubio went on to win by a comfortable 16.4%, improving upon his 2016 performance by 8.7%. According to exit polls, Rubio won 64% of White voters, 56% of Latino voters, and 9% of African American voters (down from 17% from 2016). Demings' 41.27% share of the vote was the worst performance for a Democrat in a Senate race in Florida since 1994. Despite this, she was still the best performing statewide Democrat in the 2022 Florida election cycle.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Marco Rubio, incumbent U.S. senator

Did not qualify Kevin DePuy, former Marine Corps sergeant Howard Knepper, businessman and perennial candidate (ran as a write-in candidate) Jake Loubriel, Florida National Guardsman Ervan Katari Miller, perennial candidate Earl Yearicks IV, maritime captain

Withdrawn Calvin Driggers, businessman Luis Miguel, conservative writer and activist (ran for State House) Angela Walls-Windhauser, perennial candidate

Declined Pam Bondi, former Florida attorney general Matt Gaetz, former U.S. representative (ran for re-election) Brian Mast, U.S. representative (ran for re-election) Roger Stone, political consultant Donald Trump, former president of the United States (endorsed Rubio) Ivanka Trump, former advisor to the president Michael Waltz, former U.S. representative (ran for re-election)

Endorsements

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Val Demings, U.S. representative

Eliminated in primary Ricardo de la Fuente, perennial candidate and son of Rocky de la Fuente Brian Rush, former Minority Whip of the Florida House of Representatives William Sanchez, immigration lawyer and former special counsel for the U.S. Department of Justice

Did not qualify Edward Abud, businessman Al Fox, president of the Alliance for Responsible Cuba Policy Foundation Dana Harshman, pharmacist Josue Larose, perennial candidate Coleman Watson, federal attorney and stroke survivor Joshua Weil, teacher

Withdrawn Allen Ellison, policy consultant and nominee for in 2018 and 2020 (ran for U.S. House) Alan Grayson, former U.S. representative and candidate in 2016 (ran for U.S. House) Ilya Katz, Loyola University Chicago professor Allek Pastrana, engineer (ran for U.S. House) Ken Russell, former Miami City Commissioner (ran for U.S. House)

Declined Aramis Ayala, former state attorney for the Ninth Judicial Circuit Court of Florida (2017–2021) (ran for attorney general) Charlie Crist, former U.S. representative, former governor of Florida, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010, and nominee for governor in 2014 (ran for governor) Ted Deutch, former U.S. representative Anna Eskamani, state representative Nikki Fried, former Florida commissioner of agriculture (ran for governor) Gwen Graham, former Assistant Secretary of Education for Legislation and Congressional Affairs, former U.S. representative, and candidate for governor in 2018 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, former U.S. representative Stephanie Murphy, former U.S. representative

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Ricardo ValDemings BrianRush WilliamSanchez UndecidedUniversity of North FloridaUniversity of North Florida August 8–12, 2022529 (LV)± 6.0%2%80%4%4%10%

Results

Independent and third-party candidates

Libertarian Party Candidates Qualified Dennis Misigoy, former chairman of the Enclave at Black Point Community Development District board of supervisors (2016–2021)

Unity Party Candidates Did not file Shantele Bennett, financial advisor and candidate for mayor of Orlando in 2019

Independent candidates Candidates Declared Steven B. Grant, former mayor of Boynton Beach (2016–2022) Quoc Tuan Nguyen, Florida Institute of Technology professor

Did not qualify Carlos Barberena, digital marketing consultant Did not file Grace Granda, business consultant

Withdraw Jason Holic, businessman

Declined David Jolly, chairman of Serve America Movement and former U.S. representative John Morgan, attorney and medical marijuana advocate Joe Scarborough, MSNBC host and former U.S. representative

Write-ins Candidates Declared Jay An Uloma Uma Expete Edward Gray Salomon Hernandez Sr. Howard Knepper, businessman and perennial candidate Moses Quiles, security technician

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 18, 2022 Inside Elections August 25, 2022 Sabato's Crystal Ball August 24, 2022PoliticoNovember 3, 2022RCPFebruary 24, 2022Fox News May 12, 2022DDHQJuly 20, 2022538November 4, 2022The EconomistSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated MarcoRubio (R) ValDemings (D) UndecidedMarginReal Clear PoliticsReal Clear PoliticsOctober 17, 2022 – November 6, 2022November 8, 202252.4%43.6%4.0%Rubio +8.8FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightSeptember 18, 2022 – November 4, 2022November 8, 202252.3%43.5%4.2%Rubio +8.8270towin270towinNovember 4–7, 2022November 8, 202251.6%42.4%6.0%Rubio +9.2Average52.1%43.2%4.7%Rubio +8.9 Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MarcoRubio (R) ValDemings (D) Other UndecidedResearch Co.Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%52%42%2%4%Data for Progress (D)Data for Progress (D)November 2–6, 20221,436 (LV)± 3.0%55%43%2%–Amber Integrated (R)Amber Integrated (R)November 1–2, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%49%40%4%7%CiviqsCiviqsOctober 29 – November 2, 2022772 (LV)± 3.9%52%45%2%1%InsiderAdvantage (R)InsiderAdvantage (R)November 1, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%51%45%1%3%Siena CollegeSiena CollegeOctober 30 – November 1, 2022659 (LV)± 4.4%51%43%2%4%Victory InsightsVictory InsightsOctober 30 – November 1, 2022500 (LV)± 4.8%50%46%–5%Florida State University/YouGovFlorida State University/YouGovOctober 20–31, 20221,117 (RV)–51%44%––University of North FloridaUniversity of North Florida October 17–24, 2022622 (LV)± 4.7%54%43%<1%3%Data for Progress (D)Data for Progress (D)October 19–23, 20221,251 (LV)± 3.0%51%44%2%2%Florida Atlantic UniversityFlorida Atlantic UniversityOctober 12–16, 2022719 (LV)± 3.7%48%42%3%7%RMG Research (R)RMG Research (R) October 10–13, 2022685 (LV)± 3.7%50%45%–5%Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyMason-Dixon Polling & StrategySeptember 26–28, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%47%41%2%10%Siena CollegeSiena CollegeSeptember 18–25, 2022669 (LV)± 4.5%48%41%2%9%CiviqsCiviqsSeptember 17–20, 2022617 (LV)± 4.5%49%47%3%2%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk UniversitySeptember 15–18, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%45%41%4%9%Sachs MediaSachs MediaSeptember 10, 2022600 (LV)–49%46%–5%Kurt Jetta (D)Kurt Jetta (D)September 9–10, 2022999 (RV)± 3.0%48%40%–12%563 (LV)50%45%–5%Echelon InsightsEchelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022815 (RV)± 4.3%50%41%–9%InsiderAdvantage (R)InsiderAdvantage (R)September 5–6, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%46%44%–10%Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)August 29 – September 4, 2022500 (LV)± 4.3%47%44%–9%Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)August 24–31, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%49%47%–4%Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Clarity Campaign Labs (D)August 25–30, 20223,017 (LV)± 1.8%46%45%–9%Impact Research (D)Impact Research (D)August 12–18, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%49%46%–5%Kurt Jetta (D)Kurt Jetta (D)August 12–14, 2022996 (RV)± 3.1%46%39%–14%610 (LV)± 4.0%52%41%–7%University of North FloridaAugust 8–12, 20221,624 (RV)± 3.4%44%48%7%2%Change Research (D)Change Research (D)August 2–5, 20221,031 (LV)± 3.1%46%46%–7%Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Clarity Campaign Labs (D)July 26–31, 20222,244 (LV)± 2.1%45%45%–10%Kurt Jetta (D)July 9, 2022906 (A)± 3.3%46%38%–16%732 (RV)± 3.6%45%40%–16%428 (LV)± 4.7%50%42%–8%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)May 26–27, 2022655 (V)± 3.8%47%41%–12%Phillips AcademyPhillips AcademyMay 7–9, 2022543 (RV)± 4.2%34%36%–30%Moore Information Group (R)Moore Information Group (R)March 14–19, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%47%32%8%12%Saint Leo UniversitySaint Leo University February 28 – March 12, 2022500 (LV)± 4.5%45%27%–28%Kurt Jetta (D)March 4, 20221,098 (A)± 3.0%45%26%–29%893 (RV)± 3.3%45%27%–28%446 (LV)± 4.6%49%35%–16%University of North FloridaUniversity of North Florida February 7–20, 2022685 (RV)± 3.7%46%34%–20%Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyMason-Dixon Polling & StrategyFebruary 7–10, 2022625 (RV)± 4.0%49%42%–9%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk UniversityJanuary 26–29, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%49%41%0%10%St. Pete PollsSt. Pete PollsNovember 18–19, 20212,896 (LV)± 1.8%51%44%–5%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesRedfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021867 (RV)± 3.3%45%33%3%12%842 (LV)± 3.4%48%36%3%10%Saint Leo UniversitySaint Leo UniversityOctober 17–23, 2021500 (A)± 4.5%47%29%–25%VCreek/AMG (R)VCreek/AMG (R)September 23–27, 2021405 (LV)± 4.9%42%38%5%15%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesRedfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,000 (RV)± 3.1%46%34%3%11%977 (LV)± 3.1%48%37%3%10%Political Matrix/Listener Group (R)Political Matrix/Listener Group (R)August 14–18, 20211,000 (LV)± 3.1%55%45%––St. Pete PollsSt. Pete PollsAugust 16–17, 20212,068 (RV)± 2.2%48%46%–6%Change Research (D)Change Research (D)August 14–17, 20211,585 (LV)± 2.5%47%44%–9%Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)August 4–10, 2021700 (RV)± 3.7%50%39%1%9%Political Matrix/Listener Group (R)Political Matrix/Listener Group (R)June 27, 2021681 (LV)± 3.9%60%40%––

Marco Rubio vs. Aramis Ayala Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MarcoRubio (R) AramisAyala (D) UndecidedCherry Communications (R)Cherry Communications (R)April 30 – May 8, 2021602 (LV)± 4.0%52%39%– Marco Rubio vs. Alan Grayson Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MarcoRubio (R) AlanGrayson (D) Other UndecidedRedfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021867 (RV)± 3.3%43%34%4%12%842 (LV)± 3.4%46%37%4%10%VCreek/AMG (R)September 23–27, 2021405 (LV)± 4.9%44%32%10%14%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,000 (RV)± 3.1%46%33%4%12%977 (LV)± 3.1%48%36%4%11% Marco Rubio vs. Stephanie Murphy Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MarcoRubio (R) StephanieMurphy (D) UndecidedCherry Communications (R)April 30 – May 8, 2021602 (LV)± 4.0%51%41%– Marco Rubio vs. generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MarcoRubio (R) GenericDemocrat UndecidedMason-DixonMason-DixonFebruary 24–28, 2021625 (RV)± 4.0%46%40%14%Data for Progress (D)Data for Progress (D)September 15–22, 2020620 (LV)± 3.9%42%43%15%

Debates + 2022 United States Senate general election in Florida debates Date Host Moderator Link Republican DemocraticKey: Participant  Absent  Non-invitee  Invitee Withdrawn Marco Rubio Val Demings 1 Oct. 18, 2022 Palm Beach State College Todd McDermottYoutube

Results

By county