The 2016 Georgia Republican presidential primary was held on Tuesday March 1, as part of that election cycle's Super Tuesday. It took place ahead of the presidential election that November, and the state's Democratic primary was held on the same day.
Donald Trump won the primary, with 38.8% of all votes cast. Marco Rubio came in second, with 24.5% of the vote, and Ted Cruz came in third, with 23.6% of the vote. Of Georgia's 76 bound delegates, Trump, Rubio, and Cruz took home 42, 16, and 18, respectively.
Evangelicals were a key voting bloc for Republican candidates in the primary, and Donald Trump won them handily.
State of the campaign Leading up to Super Tuesday, Trump was already the front-runner, thanks in part to his commanding victory in the South Carolina primary. Despite this, Trump still needed many more delegates to clinch the nomination, and the large number of delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday made that day's contests especially important. Politico's Kyle Cheney noted that "Super Tuesday could cripple every Republican presidential candidate not named Donald Trump," while also observing that Trump would almost certainly remain ahead of all his Republican opponents after the day's primaries and caucuses.
Georgia's 76 delegates were the second-most of any state that held a Republican primary or caucus on Super Tuesday in 2016. This may have influenced Trump to hold a rally in Valdosta the day before Georgia's primary. Because Georgia requires candidates to reach a 20% threshold to receive any of its delegates, this was seen as potentially problematic for Cruz and Rubio, both of whom had been polling around that threshold in Georgia at the time. Nevertheless, there was speculation before Super Tuesday that Rubio would do better in Georgia's primary than in that day's other primaries.
Delegate allocation 76 delegates were at stake in the Georgia Republican primary. Of these, 10 were at-large delegates, 42 were district delegates who each represented one of the state's 14 congressional districts, three were Republican Party leaders, and 21 were bonus delegates. The 42 delegates corresponding to Georgia congressional districts were all bound, whereas the remaining 34 were unbound. The delegates were awarded according to a winner-take-most system. The winner of each congressional district in the state received all three of that district's delegates if they received a majority of the vote in the district.
Polling
Aggregate polls +Source of poll aggregationDates administeredDates updatedMarco RubioDonald TrumpTed CruzMarginRealClearPoliticsRealClearPoliticsuntil March 1, 2016March 1, 201622.4%36.2%22.2%Trump +14.4FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightuntil March 1, 2016March 1, 201622.3%38.5%21.0%Trump +16.2 Polls conducted shortly before the Georgia primary gave Trump a double-digit lead over his opponents in the state. For instance, a poll conducted on February 28 by WSB-TV and Landmark Communications gave Trump a 19-point lead over his closest rival, Marco Rubio. A CBS News poll before the primary similarly found that Georgia Republicans "overwhelmingly" perceived Trump as being on the side of ordinary people, rather than wealthy donors, while they perceived Rubio in the opposite light.
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOtherPrimary resultsPrimary resultsMarch 1, 2016Donald Trump38.81%Marco Rubio24.45%Ted Cruz23.60%Ben Carson 6.23%, John Kasich 5.69%, Jeb Bush 0.69%, Rand Paul 0.22%, Mike Huckabee 0.20%, Chris Christie 0.11%, Carly Fiorina 0.09%, Rick Santorum 0.04%, Lindsey Graham 0.03%, George Pataki 0.02%,SurveyMonkey Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 1171February 22–29, 2016Donald Trump39%Ted Cruz 21%Marco Rubio 20%Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 6%, Undecided 6%Landmark/RosettaStone Margin of error: ± 2.6%
Sample size: 1400February 28, 2016Donald Trump39%Marco Rubio 20%Ted Cruz 15%Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 8%, Undecided 9%Opinion Savvy/Fox 5 Atlanta Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 710February 27–28, 2016Donald Trump32.5%Marco Rubio 23.2%Ted Cruz 23.2%John Kasich 10.7%, Ben Carson 6.1%, Undecided 4.3%Trafalgar Group Margin of error: ± 3.14% Sample size: 1350February 26–28, 2016Donald Trump38.6%Marco Rubio 23.54%Ted Cruz 20.74%John Kasich 7.03%, Ben Carson 6.14%, Undecided 3.95%CBS/YouGov Margin of error: ± 7% Sample size: 493February 22–26, 2016Donald Trump40%Ted Cruz 29%Marco Rubio 22%Ben Carson 7%, John Kasich 2%ResearchNOW/WABE Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 400February 22–24, 2016Donald Trump41%Marco Rubio 18%Ted Cruz 15%Ben Carson 8%, John Kasich 7%, Undecided 10%SurveyUSA/TEGNA Margin of error: ± 3.8% Sample size: 684February 22–23, 2016Donald Trump45%Marco Rubio 19%Ted Cruz 16%Ben Carson 8%, John Kasich 6%, Other 1%, Undecided 5%Opinion Savvy/Fox 5 Atlanta Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 745February 22–23, 2016Donald Trump33.6%Marco Rubio 22.2%Ted Cruz 20.4%John Kasich 8.9%, Ben Carson 7.7%, Undecided 7.2%NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist
Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 543February 18–23, 2016Donald Trump30%Ted Cruz 23%Marco Rubio 23%Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 9%Landmark/RosettaStone Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500February 21, 2016Donald Trump31.7%Marco Rubio 22.7%Ted Cruz 18.7%Ben Carson 8.1%, John Kasich 7.9%, Undecided 10.9%Landmark/RosettaStone Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500February 4, 2016Donald Trump27.3%Ted Cruz 18.3%Marco Rubio 18.2%Ben Carson 7.7%, John Kasich 4.4%, Chris Christie 3.9%, Jeb Bush 3.0%, Carly Fiorina 1.8%, Undecided 15.4%CBS/YouGov Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 494January 18–21, 2016Donald Trump39%Ted Cruz 29%Marco Rubio 13%Ben Carson 6%, Jeb Bush 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Rand Paul 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, No preference 1%Opinion Savvy/Fox 5 Atlanta Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 803January 17, 2016Donald Trump33.4%Ted Cruz 23.4%Marco Rubio 8.2%Ben Carson 7.3%, Jeb Bush 7.1%, John Kasich 3.8%, Chris Christie 3.7%, Carly Fiorina 3.5%, Rand Paul 3.5%, Mike Huckabee 3.2%, Rick Santorum 0.1%, Undecided 2.7%Opinion Savvy/Fox 5 AtlantaOpinion Savvy/Fox 5 Atlanta Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 538December 16, 2015Donald Trump34.6%Ted Cruz 15.8%Marco Rubio 12%Ben Carson 6.4%, Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 5.6%, Carly Fiorina 5.1%, John Kasich 2.3%, Rand Paul 2.1%, Lindsey Graham 1.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.4%, George Pataki 0.5%, Undecided 6.8%WSB TV/LandmarkWSB TV/Landmark Margin of error: ±3.3%
Sample size: 800December 10, 2015Donald Trump43.3%Ted Cruz 16.2%Marco Rubio 10.6%Ben Carson 6.7%, Jeb Bush 4.8%, Mike Huckabee 1.9%, Carly Fiorina 1.8%, John Kasich 1.5%, Rand Paul 0.5%, Undecided 12.9%FOX 5/Morris NewsFOX 5/Morris News Margin of error: ±4.7%
Sample size: 674November 9–10, 2015Ben Carson26%Donald Trump24%Ted Cruz 14%Marco Rubio 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 6%WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA-TV/SurveyUSA Margin of error: ±2%
Sample size: 2,075October 26, 2015Donald Trump35%Ben Carson 28%Marco Rubio 12%Ted Cruz 8%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, John Kasich 2%WSB/LandmarkWSB/Landmark Margin of error: ±4%
Sample size: 600September 23, 2015Donald Trump30.8%Ben Carson 17.9%Carly Fiorina 13.2%Marco Rubio 9.4%, Ted Cruz 7.9%, Jeb Bush 7.5%, Mike Huckabee 4.4%, John Kasich 1.9%, Rand Paul 1.1%, Undecided 5.9%Opinion SavvyOpinion Savvy Margin of error: ±3.8%
Sample size: 664September 3, 2015Donald Trump34.2%Ben Carson 24.8%Jeb Bush 10.9%Ted Cruz 6.3%, Mike Huckabee 5.1%, Carly Fiorina 4.5%, John Kasich 2.5%, Marco Rubio 2.1%, Chris Christie 2%, Scott Walker 1.9%, Rick Perry 0.1%, Rick Santorum 0.1%, Bobby Jindal 0.1%, Lindsey Graham 0.1%, Rand Paul 0%, George Pataki 0%, Someone else 1.8%, Undecided 3.5%WSB/LandmarkWSB/Landmark Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 600August 5, 2015Donald Trump34.3%Jeb Bush 12.0%Scott Walker 10.4%Mike Huckabee 8.1%, Ben Carson 8.1%, Ted Cruz 5.4%, John Kasich 4.5%, Marco Rubio 4.5%, Chris Christie 2.8%, Rand Paul 2.4%, Undecided 7.5%5 Atlanta/Morris News Service5 Atlanta/Morris News Service Margin of error: ± 4.1%
Sample size: 569August 3, 2015Donald Trump30.4%Jeb Bush 17.3%Ben Carson 9.6%Mike Huckabee 6.5%, Ted Cruz 5.9%, Scott Walker 5%, Rand Paul 3.4%, Chris Christie 3.2%, Marco Rubio 3% John Kasich 2.8%, Carly Fiorina 2.5% Rick Perry 2.1% Bobby Jindal 1.7%, Lindsey Graham 0.4%, George Pataki 0.2%, Rick Santorum 0.1%, Other/No opinion 5.9%Landmark Communications/Rosetta StoneLandmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 500May 11–12, 2015Mike Huckabee18.3%Ben Carson15.4%Scott Walker 12.6%Jeb Bush 10.1%, Marco Rubio 9.6%, Ted Cruz 9.3%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 2.6%, Chris Christie 2.2%, Rick Santorum 0.3%, Other/No opinion 15.6%Insider AdvantageInsider Advantage Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 200February 4, 2015Jeb Bush21.5%Scott Walker 17.3%Mike Huckabee 16.4%Ben Carson 15.5%, Rick Perry 7.2%, Rand Paul 3.9%, Marco Rubio 3.9%, Chris Christie 3%, Donald Trump 1.9%, Other/No opinion 9.5%
Results
Trump won the Georgia primary with about half a million votes, representing 38.8% of all votes cast. He won 42 of the state's 76 delegates. Trump won 155 out of Georgia's 159 counties. The only four he did not win were Clarke, Cobb, DeKalb, and Fulton counties, all of which Rubio won comfortably. Trump's strongest performance was in Atkinson County, where he received 65.9% of the vote.
Analysis Trump's victory in the Georgia primary, as well as in most other Southern Super Tuesday contests, could be attributed to strong support from Evangelical voters. According to exit polls by Edison Research, Donald Trump carried 39% of Evangelical voters, compared to 26% for Ted Cruz. Notably, however, 37% of Georgia voters believed Ted Cruz, not Donald Trump, shared their values, while only 12% believed Trump did.
Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance among culturally conservative Southern whites who were expected to view him as immoral, but he benefitted from voters' racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than shared values.
Marco Rubio, who placed third in the Georgia primary, carried Atlanta and the suburban Atlanta metro, as well as the college town Clarke County, which contains the University of Georgia.
References
External links Exit poll results from CNN