The conservative wave (; ), or blue tide (; ), or the turn to the right (; ) is a right-wing political phenomenon that occurred in the mid-2010s to the mid-2020s across Latin America as a direct reaction to the pink tide. During the conservative wave, left-wing governments suffered their first major electoral losses in a decade.
In Argentina, Mauricio Macri (liberal-conservative, center-right) succeeded Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (Peronist) in 2015. In Brazil, the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, a socialist, resulted in her departure and the rise of Vice President Michel Temer to power in 2016, and later to far-right congressman Jair Bolsonaro becoming President of Brazil. In Peru, the conservative economist Pedro Pablo Kuczynski succeeded Ollanta Humala, a socialist and left-wing nationalist. In Chile, the conservative Sebastián Piñera succeeded Michelle Bachelet, a social democrat, in 2018 in the same transition that occurred in 2010. In Bolivia, the conservative Jeanine Áñez succeeded Evo Morales amid the 2019 Bolivian political crisis. In Ecuador, the centre-right conservative banker Guillermo Lasso succeeded the deeply unpopular Lenín Moreno, becoming the first right-wing President of Ecuador in 14 years.
Starting in the 2020s, Pasokification started occurring in Latin America, and right-wing candidates rebounded with a handful of victories, constituting a second conservative wave. In late 2023 and early 2024, right-wing libertarian Javier Milei won the 2023 Argentine presidential election, defeating Peronist Sergio Massa; centre-right businessman Daniel Noboa defeated leftist Luisa González in Ecuador; right-wing politician José Raúl Mulino defeated the incumbent center-left vice president José Gabriel Carrizo in the 2024 Panamanian general election. This trend continued into 2025, with conservative Rodrigo Paz elected President of Bolivia, defeating the ruling socialist MAS in Bolivia for the first time in decades; and the 2025 victory of José Antonio Kast in Chile, as well as that of Nasry Asfura in Honduras. Analysts expect this trend to continue into 2026, with the left-wing candidates seen as likely to lose to their right-wing challengers and the establishment of the Shield of the Americas in the upcoming elections for that year. In February, conservative populist Laura Fernández Delgado was elected president in Costa Rica, defeating centrist Álvaro Ramos Chaves. In June, right-wing politician Keiko Fujimori defeated left-wing psychologist and politician Roberto Sánchez in Peru, and later that month, hard-right lawyer and businessman Abelardo de la Espriella defeated leftist politician and Senator Iván Cepeda in Colombia; both Fujimori and de la Espriella narrowly won by less than 1% of the vote.
By country In the late 2010s and early 2020s, the conservative wave began to decline following left-wing victories, starting with the 2018 Mexican general election and the 2020 Bolivian general election, and later the 2021 Peruvian general election, 2021 Chilean presidential election, 2021 Honduran general election, the 2022 Colombian presidential election, which resulted in the first left-wing president in the country's history, and the 2022 Brazilian general election, in which former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who had his political rights restored, defeated Bolsonaro.
Argentina
In Argentina, the election of Mauricio Macri of the centre-right in November 2015 as President of Argentina brought a right-wing government to power, although the populist movements of Peronism and Kirchnerism, which are tied to its leader Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's popularity,Argentina's Ex-President Wants Everyone to Know She's Not Scared of Corruption Probes – VICE News, 14 April 2016. initially remained somewhat strong. In October 2017, Macri established a more firm hold on power when many candidates of his Cambiemos party enjoyed victories in the 2017 Argentine legislative election.
In the 2019 Argentine presidential election, Macri lost to the left-leaning Alberto Fernández, who was sworn into office in December 2019. However, right-wing libertarian Javier Milei won the 2023 Argentine presidential election, defeating Peronist Sergio Massa.
Brazil In Brazil, a conservative wave began roughly around the time Dilma Rousseff won the 2014 Brazilian presidential election in a tight election, kicking off the fourth term of the Workers' Party in the highest position of government. According to a political analyst at the Inter-Union Department of Parliamentary Advice, Antônio Augusto de Queiroz, the National Congress of Brazil elected in 2014 may be considered the most conservative since the re-democratization movement, citing an increase in the number of parliamentarians linked to more conservative segments, such as ruralists, the military of Brazil, police of Brazil, and religious conservatives. The subsequent economic crisis of 2015 and investigations of corruption scandals led to a right-wing movement that sought to rescue ideas from economic liberalism and conservatism in opposition to left-wing politics. At the same time, young liberals such as those that make up the Free Brazil Movement emerged among many others. For José Manoel Montanha da Silveira Soares, within a single real generation there may be several generations that he called "differentiated and antagonistic". For him, it is not the common birth date that marks a generation, though it matters, but rather the historical moment in which they live in common. In this case, the historical moment was the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. They can be called the "post-Dilma generation".
Centrist interim President Michel Temer took office following the impeachment of Rousseff. Temer held 3% approval ratings in October 2017, facing a corruption scandal after accusations for obstructing justice and racketeering were placed against him. He managed to avoid trial thanks to the support of the right-wing parties in the National Congress. On the other hand, President of the Senate, Renan Calheiros, who was acknowledged as one of the key figures behind Rousseff's destitution and member of the centrist Brazilian Democratic Movement, was himself removed from office after facing embezzlement charges.
Conservative candidate Jair Bolsonaro of the Social Liberal Party was the winner of the 2018 Brazilian presidential election followed by left-wing former mayor of São Paulo, Fernando Haddad, of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's Workers' Party. Lula was banned to run after being convicted on criminal corruption charges and being imprisoned. Bolsonaro would later lose to Lula in the 2022 Brazilian presidential election after his political rights were restored, becoming the first sitting president to lose a bid for a second term since the possibility of reelection for an immediately consecutive term became permitted by a constitutional amendment.
Ecuador
In Ecuador, the policies and legacy of left-wing former President Rafael Correa are controversial. His successor, Lenín Moreno, was elected in the 2017 Ecuadorian general election defeating conservative banker Guillermo Lasso; a recount was needed amid allegations of fraud. The presidency of Moreno was also seen as controversial due to his shift to the centre and neoliberal policies, overseeing controversial austerity measures in petroleum which sparked the 2019 Ecuadorian protests and his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador.
In the 2021 Ecuadorian general election, Lasso announced his third presidential campaign and eventually advanced to the run-off by a narrow second-place finish. The election was noted as it saw Lasso, a conservative banker against socialist economist and Correa ally Andrés Arauz. Arauz was seen as the front-runner for the run-off election with him leading in several polls two weeks prior to the election. In the April run-off, Lasso managed to defeat Arauz in what some media called an upset victory after winning 52.4% of the vote, while Arauz won 47.6% of the vote.
During the 2023 general election that took place to replace Lasso as president, businessman and former National Assembly member Daniel Noboa was elected to the presidency. His political ideology has been described as both centrist and centre-right. In April 2025, President Daniel Noboa won re-election to serve a full four-year term.
Guatemala In Guatemala, between mid January 1991 until mid January 2008, the country was dominated by centre right and right wing governments that were elected by the people such as Jorge Serrano Elías from 1991 until he resigned and fled to Panama amid a Constitutional crisis on 1 June 1993 when he was replaced by his running mate Gustavo Adolfo Espina Salguero for a few days before Espina was also replaced by Ramiro de León Carpio who won the 1993 election with no opposition and with the support of right wing and far right parties. Between 1996 and 2008, there would be Three right leaning presidents who would serve full 4 Year terms, including Álvaro Arzú from 1996 until 2000 who oversaw the end of the 36 Year Civil War, Alfonso Portillo from 2000 to 2004, and Óscar Berger from 2004 to 2008, However things started to change in 2007 when social democratic leader Álvaro Colom of the centre-left National Unity of Hope was elected president in the 2007 Guatemalan general election, being the only modern day leftist president in the country and the first leftist president since the overthrow of Jacobo Árbenz in 1954. Colom's successor, right-wing Otto Pérez Molina of the Patriotic Party, was forced to resign his presidency due to popular unrest, as well as corruption scandals that ended with his arrest. Following Molina's resignation, right-wing Jimmy Morales was elected into office following the 2015 Guatemalan general election. As of 2026, he was under investigation for illegal financing. Morales successor Alejandro Giammattei also experienced massive popular unrest, resulting in the 2020 Guatemalan protests. In 2023, centre left politician and member of the Semilla party Bernardo Arévalo beated former first lady Sandra Torres in a landslide, becoming the first left leaning or leftist president in 12 Years.
Honduras
In Honduras, Manuel Zelaya's turn to the left during his tenure resulted in the 2009 Honduran coup d'état, which was condemned by the entire region, including the United States. Years later after the coup, Zelaya said his overthrow was the beginning of the "conservative restoration" in Latin America.
After the coup, the next democratically elected president was right-wing Porfirio Lobo Sosa (2010–2014), then right-wing Juan Orlando Hernández of the conservative National Party of Honduras won the 2013 Honduran presidential election over left-wing Xiomara Castro (Zelaya's wife) by a slight margin. Soon after, Hernández reformed the Constitution of Honduras to allow himself to be candidate for immediate reelection (something until then forbidden by Honduran law) and ran as candidate for the 2017 Honduran presidential election in what some observers question as undemocratic, authoritarian-leaning, and corrupt.
During the election, Hernández' tight self-proclaimed victory over Salvador Nasralla of the opposition alliance, alongside accusations of voter fraud, caused massive riots throughout Honduras. The declaration of a curfew from the country was labeled as illegal by some jurists, and the violent repression of the protests left at least seven dead and dozens injured. Due to the general popular unrest and voter fraud allegations, the Organization of American States requested a new election to no avail.