Alec Rasizade () is a prominent Soviet and American professor of history and political science, who specialized in Sovietology, primarily known for the typological model (or "algorithm" in his own words), which describes the impact of a decline in oil revenues on the process of decline in rentier states by stages and cycles of their general socio-economic degradation upon the end of an oil boom. He has also authored more than 200 studies on the history of the 20th century, Perestroika reforms and breakup of the USSR, oil diplomacy and contemporary politics in the post-Soviet states and autonomies of Russia, Central Asia and the Caucasus.See citation of his works at Google Scholar.
Education and scholarship Alec Rasizade was born in the city of Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan SSR, Soviet Union, in 1947 and graduated from the history department of Azerbaijan State University in 1969, then graduated and received a PhD degree in history from Moscow State University in 1974 (with a thesis on the Truman Doctrine),А.Ш.Расизаде. Установление военно-политического союза США и Турции в 1947-1952 годах (автореферат кандидатской диссертации). Издательство МГУ, Москва, 1974, 24 стр. and the Doctor of History degree from the USSR Academy of Sciences in 1990 (for dissertation on Turkey in the system of NATO).А.Ш.Расизаде. Турция в системе НАТО (докторская диссертация). Издательство Наука (АН СССР), Москва, 1990, 389 стр. He subsequently worked as a professor of European and American history at Azerbaijan State University from 1974 to 1980, and a senior research fellow at Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences from 1981 to 1990.А.Ш.Расизаде. Школа американистики в Азербайджане. = Учёные записки АГУ (Баку), 1978, номер 4, стр.70-98.
Upon the demise of the USSR in 1991, Rasizade moved to the United States as a visiting professor of history at the University of South Florida in Tampa.Alec Rasizade. Perestroika and breakup of the USSR (PhD dissertation). USF dissertation series: University of South Florida Press, Tampa, 1995, 257 pages. Furthermore, as a Fulbright professor, he taught Soviet history in the 1990s at Stanford, Berkeley, UCLA, Harvard, SAIS, Monmouth and other universities.Lectures of prof. Rasizade at the University of California (Berkeley) in 1997.Lectures of prof. Rasizade at the University of California (Berkeley) in 2002. After obtaining in 1995 a doctorate in history from Columbia University (based on the scope of his lectures and publications), he worked at its Harriman Institute.A.Rasizade. Central Asia in transition to the Third World. (Working papers of the Harriman Central Asia program). Columbia University Press. New York, 1999, 725 pages. In 2000, Rasizade was invited to Washington to work at the Center for Strategic and International Studies,Alec Rasizade at Foreign Policy Research Institute (Philadelphia). whereupon in 2004 he moved to the newly established Historical Research Center of the National Academy of Sciences,Alec Rasizade at Kennan Institute (Washington). where wrote his most significant works until retiring upon its closure in 2013.See abstracts and citations of those studies at Research Gate.
Professor Rasizade occasionally participates in academic, educational, social, analytical and legislative events, discussions, panels, peer reviews, interviews, broadcasts and hearings as an expert in post-Soviet states. He is also an advisory or editorial board member in a number of the world's leading academic journals in his field of Soviet studies, and professor emeritus of Baku State University.Alec Rasizade on advisory board of a Routledge published journal (London).
Significant studies Rasizade's academic contribution to Sovietology may be divided into four general categories: the Caspian oil boom, Perestroika in Russia, Azerbaijan and Central Asia. His ideas and conclusions for each of these major studies are summarized in the following theses:
1) Having an insider knowledge of Caspian oil reserves, he precisely calculated and predicted in his writings the exact end of the Caspian oil boom of 2000–2020, notwithstanding the geopolitical euphoria of the 1990s in Western capitals based on the grossly exaggerated estimates by international academia and news media, Azerbaijan's government and the Caspian oil consortium.A.Rasizade. Azerbaijan and the oil trade: prospects and pitfalls. = The Brown Journal of World Affairs (Brown University Press), Summer-Fall 1997, volume 4, number 2, pages 277—294; A.Rasizade. Azerbaijan, the US and oil prospects on the Caspian Sea. = Journal of Third World Studies (Association of Third World Studies), Spring 1999, volume 16, number 1, pages 29-48; A.Rasizade. Mythology of the munificent Caspian bonanza and its concomitant pipeline geopolitics. = Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East (Duke University Press), 2000 double issue, volume 20, numbers 1-2, pages 138—152; A.Rasizade. US gaze on oil bonanza: perception and reality in Azerbaijan. = Indian Journal of Asian Affairs (Jaipur), December 2002, volume 15, number 2, pages 17–32; A.Rasizade. The great game of Caspian energy: ambitions and the reality. = Journal of Southern Europe and the Balkans (London: Taylor & Francis), April 2005, volume 7, number 1, pages 1-17; A.Rasizade. The mystery of the Caspian oil boom. = Contemporary Review (Oxford) in two parts: 1) September 2004, volume 285, number 1664, pages 129–135; 2) October 2004, volume 285, number 1665, pages 199–205.
2) On Russia, he wrote that Putin's Bonapartism was a natural result of the 1990s turmoil, when the society as a whole and the nouveau riches in particular, longed for a strongman who could establish order, stability and legitimacy for the illegally acquired wealth even at the expense of civil rights restriction. Furthermore, Rasizade argues that the demise of the USSR was only the first stage in the process of the Russian Federation's own breakup or, as he put it bluntly, Russia is doomed to disintegrate as did before all multinational empires in history.A.Rasizade. Perestroika and breakup of the USSR (USF dissertation series). University of South Florida Press, Tampa, 1995, 257 pages; A.Rasizade. Putin's mission in the Russian Thermidor. = World Affairs (Delhi), Winter 2007, volume 11, number 4, pages 142-176; A.Rasizade. Putin's mission in the Russian Thermidor. = Communist and Post-Communist Studies (Amsterdam: Elsevier publishers for the University of California), March 2008, volume 41, number 1, pages 1-25; A.Rasizade. Putin's place in Russian history. = International Politics (London: Palgrave-Macmillan), September 2008, volume 45, number 5, pages 531-553; A.Rasizade. A propos of the Georgian war: reflections on Russia's revanchism in its near abroad. = Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies (London: Taylor & Francis), March 2009, volume 11, number 1, pages 9-27; A.Rasizade. Chechnya: the Achilles heel of Russia. = Contemporary Review (Oxford) in three parts: 1) April 2005, volume 286, number 1671, pages 193–197; 2) May 2005, volume 286, number 1672, pages 277–284; 3) June 2005, volume 286, number 1673, pages 327–332.
3) Azerbaijan, in his view, is a classic Middle Eastern petrostate, which will eventually sink into its legitimate place among the impoverished Muslim nations with the end of the current oil boom, as is predetermined by its social system, form of government, national ideology and culture, endemic corruption and lack of industrial endowment. He insists that the first (1900–1920) and the second (2000–2020) Baku oil booms were just a deviation in Azerbaijan's natural, logical and historic path from a Soviet socialist republic to a Third world country.A.Rasizade. Azerbaijan descending into the Third World after a decade of independence. = Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East (Duke University Press), 2002 double issue, volume 22, numbers 1-2, pages 127-139; A.Rasizade. Azerbaijan after a decade of independence: less oil, more graft and poverty. = Central Asian Survey (London: Taylor & Francis), December 2002, volume 21, number 4, pages 349-370; A.Rasizade. Azerbaijan in transition to the "new age of democracy". = Communist and Post-Communist Studies (Los Angeles: Pergamon Press for the University of California), September 2003, volume 36, number 3, pages 345-372; A.Rasizade. Azerbaijan after Heydar Aliev. = Nationalities Papers (London: Taylor & Francis), March 2004, volume 32, number 1, pages 137-164; A.Rasizade. L'imbroglio du Karabakh: une perspective azérie (translated into French by B.Eisenbaum). = Les Cahiers de l'Orient (Paris), Hiver 2011, numéro 101, pages 83-95.
4) As for Central Asia, the main argument in his publications is the futility of Western efforts to impose there the democratic values of European civilization, since a democracy in Muslim nations inevitably leads to election and entrenchment of Islamism, as has been proven by American interventions in other Islamic countries. Instead of direct involvement, he recommended to US government a support for local tyrants who were able to maintain peace in the region and order in their countries by the brutally effective methods of the same Islamofascism.A.Rasizade. Dictators, Islamists, big powers and ordinary people: the new 'great game' in Central Asia. = Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft (Bonn: F.Ebert Stiftung), July 2002, number 3, pages 90-106; A.Rasizade. Na Afghanistan het nieuwe Grote Spel in Centraal-Azië (translated into Dutch by G.J.Telkamp). = Internationale Spectator (The Hague: Netherlands Institute of International Relations), October 2002, volume 56, number 10, pages 494-500; A.Rasizade. Entering the old 'great game' in Central Asia. = Orbis (Philadelphia: Pergamon Press for Foreign Policy Research Institute), Winter 2003, volume 47, number 1, pages 41-58; A.Rasizade. The new 'great game' in Central Asia after Afghanistan. = September 11 and World Politics (edited by G.Bacik & B.Aras). Fatih University Press, Istanbul, 2004, chapter 8: pages 127-143; A.Rasizade. Turkmenbashi and his Turkmenistan. = Contemporary Review (Oxford), October 2003, volume 283, number 1653, pages 197–206; A.Rasizade. Washington and the ‘great game’ in Central Asia. = Contemporary Review (Oxford), May 2002, volume 280, number 1636, pages 257–270.
Rasizade's algorithm
The most outstanding work of Alec Rasizade, which gained an international acclaim, was the eponymous algorithm of decline theory, described in his 2008 article at the peak of oil prices, when nothing foreshadowed their steep fall and the subsequent onset of global economic recession with irreversible consequences for oil-exporting nations.A.Rasizade. The end of cheap oil. = Contemporary Review (Oxford), Autumn 2008, volume 290, number 1690, pages 273—284. Algorithm of Rasizade (or Paradox of Rasizade) is studied at top universities to assess the development (or degradation) prospects of such countries.Rasizade's Paradox in the curriculum of Moscow State University's department of economics. Before that, the effect of rising oil prices, rendered to strengthen the national currencies and affect the economies of rentier states as a result of oil boom, was described only by the "Dutch disease" theory, first introduced in 1977.The Dutch disease. = The Economist (London), 26.XI.1977, pages 82-83.