2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Wisconsin, one from each of the state's eight congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The Wisconsin partisan primary was held on August 14, 2018, with the governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative, odd-numbered Wisconsin State Senate seats, and all Wisconsin Assembly seats on the ballot.

Wisconsin was notable for being the only state in which the party that won the popular vote still held a minority of congressional seats in 2018. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel attributed this to the impact of gerrymandering imposed by the Republican-controlled Wisconsin Legislature in 2011.

Results summary Statewide Party Candi-dates Votes Seats No. % No. +/– % Democratic Party 8 1,367,492 53.18% 3 37.50% Republican Party 7 1,172,964 45.61% 5 62.50% Independent 3 21,592 0.84% 0 0.00% Write-in 6 49 0.00% 0 0.00% Scattering 9,558 0.37% 0 0.00%Total 24 2,571,655 100.00% 8 100.00%

District Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin by district:

DistrictDemocraticRepublicanOthersTotalResult Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %District 1 137,508 42.27% 177,492 54.56% 10,317 3.17% 325,317 100.00% Republican holdDistrict 2 309,116 97.42% 0 0.00% 8,179 2.58% 317,295 100.00% Democratic holdDistrict 3 187,888 59.65% 126,980 40.31% 121 0.04% 314,989 100.00% Democratic holdDistrict 4 206,487 75.61% 59,091 21.64% 7,509 2.75% 273,087 100.00% Democratic holdDistrict 5 138,385 37.99% 225,619 61.93% 284 0.08% 364,288 100.00% Republican holdDistrict 6 144,536 44.46% 180,311 55.47% 218 0.07% 325,065 100.00% Republican holdDistrict 7 124,307 38.50% 194,061 60.11% 4,472 1.39% 322,840 100.00% Republican holdDistrict 8 119,265 36.28% 209,410 63.69% 99 0.03% 328,774 100.00% Republican holdTotal 1,367,492 53.18% 1,172,964 45.61% 31,199 1.21% 2,571,655 100.00%

District 1

The 1st congressional district is located in southeastern Wisconsin, covering Kenosha County, Racine County and most of Walworth County, as well as portions of Rock County, Waukesha County and Milwaukee County. Incumbent Republican Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House and Republican nominee for vice president in the 2012 who had represented the district since 1999, did not run for re-election. He was re-elected with 65% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+5.

Republican primary Ryan could potentially have seen a close race; in hypothetical polling, his main Democratic challenger, Randy Bryce, was behind Ryan by only seven points. Ryan was also facing challenges in the Republican primary from Paul Nehlen, who also challenged Ryan in 2016, and from Nick Polce. Ryan announced on April 11, 2018, that he is not seeking re-election. On April 22, Bryan Steil, member of the University of Wisconsin Board of Regents and former personal driver to Ryan, announced his bid for the seat, with news outlets reporting Steil as the Republican Party nominee front-runner.

Candidates Nominee Bryan Steil, University of Wisconsin Board of Regents member

Eliminated in primary Paul Nehlen, businessman and white nationalist Nick Polce, businessman and former Green Beret"Polce, Nick - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission.Dent, David J. (December 20, 2017). "Inside the Desperate, Long-Shot Attempt to Bring Down Paul Ryan". Vice. Jeremy Ryan, activist Kevin Adam Steen, applications engineer

Withdrew Brad Boivin, psychologist (endorsed Steil) Jeff Wamboldt, county supervisor and police officer

Declined Tyler August, Speaker pro tempore of the Wisconsin State Assembly Dave Craig, state senator Samantha Kerkman, member of the Wisconsin State Assembly Steve Nass, state senator Mark Neumann, former U.S. representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1998 Reince Priebus, former White House Chief of Staff, former chairman of the Republican National Committee and former chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin Paul Ryan, incumbent U.S. representative and 54th Speaker of the House Robin Vos, Speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly Van Wanggaard, state senator

Endorsements

Primary results

Democratic primary Two Democrats announced; ironworker Randy Bryce and Janesville school board member Cathy Myers.

Candidates Nominee Randy Bryce, ironworker, union activist

Eliminated in primary Cathy Myers, Janesville School Board member (endorsed Randy Bryce)

Withdrawn David Yankovich, political writer

Declined Peter Barca, member of the Wisconsin State Assembly and former U.S. representative Ryan Solen, Democratic Party of Wisconsin Veteran's Caucus secretary/treasurer and nominee for this seat in 2016

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RandyBryce CathyMyers UndecidedRemington (R-CLF)Remington (R-CLF) July 8–9, 2018 1,020 ± 3.1% 33% 34% 33%

Primary results

General election Endorsements

Polling Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMargin of errorBryanSteil (R)RandyBryce (D)UndecidedChange Research (D-Bryce)Change Research (D-Bryce)October 19–21, 2018 551–44%45%–NYT Upshot/Siena CollegeNYT Upshot/Siena CollegeSeptember 11–13, 2018 500 ± 4.7%50%44%6%Global Strategy Group (D-Bryce)Global Strategy Group (D-Bryce)September 4–8, 2018 400 ± 4.9%45%45%10%Global Strategy Group (D-Bryce)Global Strategy Group (D-Bryce) July 11–15, 2018 401 ± 4.9%40%41%—

with Paul Ryan Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror PaulRyan (R) RandyBryce (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D) November 9–10, 2017 549 ± 4.2% 46% 39% – 15%

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018 Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018 Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018RCPNovember 5, 2018Daily KosNovember 5, 2018538November 7, 2018CNNOctober 31, 2018PoliticoNovember 4, 2018

Results

District 2

The 2nd congressional district covers Dane County, Iowa County, Lafayette County, Sauk County and Green County, as well as portions of Richland County and Rock County. The district includes Madison, the state's capital, its suburbs and some of the surrounding areas. Incumbent Democrat Mark Pocan, who had represented the district since 2013, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 69% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of D+18.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Mark Pocan, incumbent U.S. representative

Primary results

Republican primary No Republicans filed

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018 Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018 Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018RCPNovember 5, 2018Daily KosNovember 5, 2018538November 7, 2018CNNOctober 31, 2018PoliticoNovember 4, 2018

Results

District 3

The 3rd congressional district covers much of the Driftless Area in southwestern and western Wisconsin; The district includes the cities of La Crosse and Eau Claire. It borders the states of Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois. Incumbent Democrat Ron Kind, who had represented the district since 1997, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 99% of the vote in 2016. The district had an EVEN PVI, indicating an almost equal support of Democrats and Republicans.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Ron Kind, incumbent U.S. representative

Declined Juliet Germanotta, ordained minister

Primary results

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Steve Toft, retired Army colonel

Withdrawn Brandon Cook, small business owner Alex Virijevich

Primary results

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018 Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018 Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018RCPNovember 5, 2018Daily KosNovember 5, 2018538November 7, 2018CNNOctober 31, 2018PoliticoNovember 4, 2018

Results

District 4

The 4th congressional district encompasses a part of Milwaukee County and including all of the city of Milwaukee and its working-class suburbs of Cudahy, St. Francis, South Milwaukee, and West Milwaukee. Recent redistricting has added the Milwaukee County North Shore communities of Glendale, Shorewood, Whitefish Bay, Fox Point, Bayside, and Brown Deer to the district. Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore, who had represented the district since 2005, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 70% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of D+25.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Gwen Moore, incumbent U.S. representative

Eliminated in primary Gary George, former state senator, convicted felon and candidate for this seat in 2014 & 2016

Primary results

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Tim Rogers, deliveryman

Eliminated in primary Cindy Werner, Army veteran

Primary results

Independent candidates Robert Raymond

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018 Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018 Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018RCPNovember 5, 2018Daily KosNovember 5, 2018538November 7, 2018CNNOctober 31, 2018PoliticoNovember 4, 2018

Endorsements

Results

District 5

The 5th congressional district covers all of Washington and Jefferson counties, some of Waukesha and Dodge counties, and portions of Milwaukee and Walworth counties. Incumbent Republican Jim Sensenbrenner, who had represented the district since 1979, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 67% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+13.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Jim Sensenbrenner, incumbent U.S. representative

Eliminated in primary Jennifer Hoppe Vipond, pediatrician

Primary results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Tom Palzewicz, small businessman

Primary results

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018 Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018 Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018RCPNovember 5, 2018Daily KosNovember 5, 2018538November 7, 2018CNNOctober 31, 2018PoliticoNovember 4, 2018

Endorsements

Results

District 6

The 6th congressional district is located in eastern Wisconsin, including the outer suburbs of Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay, it includes all or portions of the following counties: Adams, Columbia, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Jefferson, Manitowoc, Marquette, Ozaukee, Sheboygan, Waushara, and Winnebago. It also includes a small portion of far northern Milwaukee County around River Hills. Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+8.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Glenn Grothman, incumbent U.S. representative (R-Campbellsport)

Withdrawn Scott Olmer

Primary results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Dan Kohl, attorney, former Milwaukee Bucks executive

Withdrawn Sarah Lloyd, farmer and nominee for this seat in 2016

Primary results

General election Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof errorGlennGrothman (R)DanKohl (D) UndecidedJMC Analytics/Bold Blue CampaignsJMC Analytics/Bold Blue CampaignsOctober 29 – November 3, 2018500± 4.5%61%33%6%Change Research (D)Change Research (D)October 27–29, 2018525–50%48%–

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018 Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018 Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018RCPNovember 5, 2018Daily KosNovember 5, 2018538November 7, 2018CNNOctober 31, 2018PoliticoNovember 4, 2018

Results

District 7