The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. North Carolina was one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and former Democratic state senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries.
Cunningham led Tillis in the polls throughout much of the campaign. In early October 2020, it was reported that Cunningham had exchanged sexually suggestive messages with a married woman who was not his wife. Cunningham confirmed the texts were authentic and apologized for his behavior. The woman stated that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020.
Tillis was elected to a second and final term, outperforming pre-election polling to win a narrow victory, breaking the "one-term curse" that existed with this particular Senate seat for over twenty years; as no incumbent had been re-elected to this seat since 1996 when Jesse Helms won reelection. On November 10, 2020, a week after Election Day, Cunningham called Tillis to concede the race. Tillis won by a margin of 1.8% over Cunningham, slightly larger than his 1.5% victory in 2014. Tillis received a smaller vote share than Donald Trump's 49.93%, but slightly overperformed his margin of victory in North Carolina.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee Thom Tillis, incumbent U.S. senator
Eliminated in primary Larry Holmquist, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 Sharon Hudson, activist Paul Wright, former North Carolina Superior Court judge, perennial candidate, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016
Withdrawn Sandy Smith, farm owner (running for U.S. House in NC-01) Garland Tucker, former CEO and chairman of Triangle Capital
Declined Ted Budd, incumbent U.S. representative for North Carolina's 13th congressional district Mark Meadows, former U.S. representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district Mark Walker, incumbent U.S. representative for North Carolina's 6th congressional district
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error SandySmith ThomTillis GarlandTucker MarkWalker PaulWright Other UndecidedHigh Point UniversityHigh Point University February 21–28, 2020 247 (LV) – –69% – – 8% 8% 16% 444 (RV) – –58% – – 7% 10% 26%Meredith CollegeFebruary 16–24, 2020353 (LV)± 3.0% – 53% – –5%6%36%SurveyUSASurveyUSAFebruary 13–16, 2020501 (LV)± 5.0% – 59% – –3%8%29%High Point UniversityHigh Point University January 31 – February 6, 2020 198 (LV) – – 62% – – 7% 5% 27% 400 (RV) – – 52% – – 6% 5% 38% December 20, 2019 Smith withdraws from the race; Wright announces his candidacy December 16, 2019 Walker announces he will not runHarper Polling/Civitas (R)Harper Polling/Civitas (R) December 2–4, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 11% 63% – – – – 25% December 2, 2019 Tucker withdraws from the raceFOX NewsFOX News November 10–13, 2019 574 (LV) ± 4.0% 4% 54% 11% – – 5% 26%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 19–20, 2019 564 (V) – – 38% 31% – – – 31%Diversified Research (R)Diversified Research (R) July 8–9, 2019 500 (V) – – 40% 30% – – – 30%WPA Intelligence (R)WPA Intelligence (R)May 19–21, 2019502 (LV)± 4.5% 2%40% 11% 17% – – 30% 2% 18% 8%56% – – 16% May 6, 2019 Tucker announces his candidacyDiversified Research (R) Months before May, 2019 – – – 63% 7% – – – 30%
with only Thom Tillis and Mark Walker Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ThomTillis MarkWalker UndecidedWPA Intelligence (R)May 19–21, 2019502 (LV)± 4.5%43% 34% 23% 28%64% 8% 21%69% 10%
with Thom Tillis and Generic Republican Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ThomTillis GenericRepublican UndecidedWPA Intelligence (R)May 19–21, 2019502 (LV)± 4.5% 17%18%52% 7%32%57%
Results
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee Cal Cunningham, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010
Eliminated in primary Trevor Fuller, Mecklenburg County commissioner Atul Goel, physician and former United States Air Force officer Erica D. Smith, state senator Steve Swenson
Withdrawn Katherine Bell-Moore Eva F. Lee, attorney (running for North Carolina Commissioner of Labor) Eric L. Mansfield, former state senator Steve Williams
Declined Janet Cowell, former North Carolina State Treasurer (endorsed Cunningham) Anthony Foxx, former U.S. Secretary of Transportation and former mayor of Charlotte (endorsed Cunningham) Rachel Hunt, state representative, and daughter of former Governor and 1984 Democratic Senate nominee Jim Hunt Vi Lyles, mayor of Charlotte Dan McCready, former U.S. Marine, businessman, and nominee for North Carolina's 9th congressional district in 2018 and 2019 special election Deborah K. Ross, former state representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016 (running for North Carolina's 2nd congressional district) Thomas W. Ross, former president of the University of North Carolina system Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General (running for reelection) Brian Turner, state representative
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error CalCunningham TrevorFuller AtulGoel EricaSmith SteveSwenson UndecidedHigh Point UniversityFebruary 21–28, 2020 274 (LV) –50% 4% 1% 24% 3% 18% 474 (RV) –42% 5% 1% 24% 4% 4%Civitas Institute/Spry StrategiesCivitas Institute/Spry Strategies February 26–27, 2020 587 (LV) ± 4.1%45% 2% 1% 23% 1% 28%NBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist February 23–27, 2020 568 (LV) ± 5.1%51% 3% 1% 18% 2% 25%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling February 23–24, 2020 852 (LV) ± 3.4%45% 4% 1% 18% 2% 30%Meredith College February 16–24, 2020 429 (LV) ± 3.0%43% 2% 1% 14% 2% 36%Civitas Institute/Spry StrategiesCivitas Institute/Spry Strategies February 21–23, 2020 553 (LV) ± 3.8%48% 1% 0% 21% 1% 29%SurveyUSA February 13–16, 2020 698 (LV) ± 4.9%42% 3% 1% 17% 3% 34%High Point UniversityJanuary 31 – February 6, 2020 224 (LV) –37% 4% 0% 11% 4%44% 397 (RV) –29% 5% 1% 10% 5%50%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling February 4–5, 2020 604 (LV) –29% 3% 2% 10% 4%52%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 10–12, 2020 509 (LV) –22% 2% 3% 12% 1%60%FOX News November 10–13, 2019 669 (RV) ± 4.0% 13% 10% –18% –49%
Results
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Nominee Shannon Bray, U.S. Navy veteran, author, and candidate for North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in 2019
Constitution Party
Nominee Kevin E. Hayes, candidate for the North Carolina House of Representatives in 2012 and 2018
Independence Party
Withdrawn Jeremy Thomas
Independent write-in candidates
Withdrawn Marcia Abrams Lee Brian Matthew Cisneros Michelle Parks Sunita Singh
General election
Campaign During the Democratic primary, a Republican-funded Super PAC spent $3 million on ads attacking Cunningham and promoting left-wing rival Erica D. Smith.
Cunningham and Tillis participated in debates on September 13, September 22, and October 1.
In July, Tillis claimed Cunningham had been "silent" on the issue of defunding the police, saying,—"I assume [his] silence is ...consent". In reality, Cunningham had spoken publicly about the issue and written an op-ed a month earlier stating his opposition to defunding the police, advocating police reform instead.
On October 3, the New York Times wrote that the race had fallen into "utter mayhem" within a period of a few hours after Tillis tested positive for COVID-19 and Cunningham admitted to exchanging sexual text messages with a woman who was not his wife, damaging an image that leaned heavily on his character and military service. Days later, the woman stated that she had had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020. The Army Reserve started an investigation into Cunningham. The husband of the woman who stated that she had had an affair with Cunningham, himself an Army veteran, called on Cunningham to drop out of the Senate race. Asked repeatedly whether he had had other extramarital affairs, Cunningham declined to answer.
Tillis's diagnosis, which came after an outbreak at a White House ceremony for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, temporarily threw Barrett's confirmation into jeopardy, as two Republican senators had already stated their intention to vote against (though one of them would eventually vote in favor of her confirmation).
Predictions SourceRankingAs of538November 2, 2020EconomistNovember 2, 2020Daily Kos October 30, 2020DDHQNovember 3, 2020 Inside Elections October 28, 2020 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 2, 2020RCPOctober 23, 2020 The Cook Political Report October 29, 2020PoliticoNovember 2, 2020
Post-primary endorsements
Fundraising In the first quarter of 2020, Cunningham outraised Tillis for the first time, receiving $4.4 million compared to the $2.1 million Tillis raised. Tillis's prior fundraising, however, left him with the advantage in cash on hand, with $6.5 million in the bank, compared to Cunningham's $3 million.
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls +Cal Cunningham vs. Thom TillisSource of poll aggregationDates administeredDates updatedCal CunninghamThom TillisOther/UndecidedMargin270 to Win270 to WinNovember 2, 2020November 3, 202047.0%44.2%8.8%Cunningham +2.8%Real Clear PoliticsReal Clear PoliticsNovember 1, 2020November 3, 202047.6%45.0%7.4%Cunningham +2.6%
Tillis vs. Cunningham