2018 Idaho gubernatorial election

The 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election took place on November 6 to elect the next governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter chose not to run for a fourth term, and the state's primaries were held on May 15.

Former state representative Paulette Jordan was the Democratic Party's nominee. She was the first Democratic nominee from Northern Idaho since Cecil Andrus, who was first elected governor in 1970.

Jordan lost to incumbent lieutenant governor Brad Little by 21.6 percentage points, for a seventh consecutive Republican victory.

A record 605,131 votes were cast for governor in 2018, a 37.6% increase over the previous election in 2014 was 452,535 votes in 2010.

Republican primary

Incumbent governor Butch Otter chose not to run for reelection for a fourth term in office.

Candidates Declared Tommy Ahlquist, businessman and former emergency physician Harley Brown, perennial candidate Dalton Cannady Raúl Labrador, incumbent U.S. representative from Brad Little, lieutenant governor of Idaho Lisa Marie, perennial candidate Steve Pankey, Constitution nominee for governor in 2014 and future convicted murderer

Withdrew Russ Fulcher, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2014 (ran for U.S. House) Troy Minton, activist (running as a Democrat)

Declined Butch Otter, incumbent governor Lori Otter, First Lady of Idaho Lawrence Wasden, Idaho Attorney General (ran for re-election)

Campaign Lieutenant Governor Brad Little indicated in June 2016 that he would run for governor, a decision described as "early" by the Idaho Statesman. Little was characterized as a politician favored by members of the party establishment, including Otter and U.S. senator Jim Risch.

Representative Raúl Labrador chose to forgo reelection in the 1st district in favor of a gubernatorial candidacy. Labrador, a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, was considered the most conservative candidate in the primary. As a candidate, Labrador suggested that he would be open to overruling Medicaid expansion in the event the state's 2018 ballot measure on the issue passed.

Physician and Boise-area property developer Tommy Ahlquist, a first time candidate, touted his non-political background and pledged to cut regulations to encourage growth. Ahlquist notably received the support of 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TommyAhlquist RaulLabrador BradLittle LisaMarie LawrenceWasden* Other UndecidedDan Jones & AssociatesDan Jones & Associates February 26 – March 15, 2018 – – 21% 25% 17% – – 6% 31%Dan Jones & AssociatesDan Jones & Associates November 8–15, 2017 619 ± 3.9% 14% 17% 21% 4% 4% 5% 36%Magellan Strategies (R-Labrador)Magellan Strategies (R-Labrador) October 11–12, 2017 714 ± 3.7% 21% 37% 23% – – – 19%

* Denotes candidates who did not enter the race.

Forum and debates + 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election Republican primary candidate forum and debates Date Host Moderator Link Republican Republican RepublicanKey: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn Tommy Ahlquist Raúl Labrador Brad Little1 Apr. 10, 2018 Greater Idaho Falls Chamber of CommerceKIDKCompass Academy Todd KunzYouTube 2 Apr. 23, 2018 Idaho Public Television Melissa DavlinYouTube 3 May 1, 2018 KTVBNorthwest Nazarene University Dee SartonYouTube

Results Little ultimately won the primary with 37.3% of the vote, with Labrador taking 32.6% and Ahlquist taking 26.2%. Little's campaign performed best in the Boise metropolitan area and agrarian communities in the southwestern part of the state. Labrador performed best in areas in the 1st congressional district, located in the northern part of the state. Ahlquist, a Mormon, saw a better performance in eastern counties, which have a notable Latter Day Saint (LDS) presence.

Democratic primary Candidates Declared A.J. Balukoff, businessman, member of the Boise School District board of trustees and nominee for governor in 2014 Peter Dill, organic farmer and business attorney Paulette Jordan, former state representative

Declined Michelle Stennett, minority leader of the Idaho Senate

Endorsements

Debate + 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election democratic primary debate Date Host Moderator Link Democratic DemocraticKey: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn A.J. Balukoff Paulette Jordan1 April 23, 2018 Idaho Public Television Melissa Davlin PBS 2 May 1, 2018 KTVBNorthwest Nazarene University Dee Sarton YouTube

Results

Independents Candidates Declared Adam Phillips Michael Richardson John Thomas Wiechec

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018The Washington Post November 5, 2018FiveThirtyEight November 5, 2018Rothenberg Political Report November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018RealClearPolitics November 4, 2018Daily Kos November 5, 2018Fox News November 5, 2018Politico November 5, 2018Governing November 5, 2018

Debate + 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election debate Date Host Moderator Link Republican DemocraticKey: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn Brad Little Paulette Jordan1 October 15, 2018 IdahoPTV Melissa Davlin C-SPAN

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BradLittle (R) PauletteJordan (D) BevBoeck (L) Other UndecidedChange ResearchChange Research November 2–4, 2018 838 – 55% 39% 3% 2%Walter Bayes with 2% –Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) August 2–5, 2018 826 ± 3.2% 36% 28% – 5% 31%Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) July 12–15, 2018 1,061 ± 2.8% 38% 28% – 7% 26%Dan Jones & AssociatesDan Jones & Associates June 22 – July 9, 2018 606 ± 4.0% 43% 31% 5% 8%Walter Bayes (C) with 3%, someone else with 5% 13%

Results

By county CountBrad LittleRepublicanPaulette JordanDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Ada92,68448.7%94,77249.7%3,0461.6%-2,088-1.0%190,502Adams1,28867.6%57930.4%392.1%70937.2%1,906Bannock14,97551.5%13,38646.0%7252.5%1,5895.5%29,086Bear Lake1,78082.8%30714.3%643.0%1,47368.5%2,151Benewah2,67271.0%1,00426.7%872.3%1,66844.3%3,763Bingham9,33770.5%3,51526.5%3983.0%5,82244.0%13,250Blaine3,06329.2%7,26769.3%1571.5%-4,204-40.1%10,487Boise2,37467.6%1,05129.9%852.5%1,32337.7%3,510Bonner11,47761.7%6,74936.3%3642.0%4,72827.4%18,590Bonneville23,49766.6%10,69930.3%1,0653.1%12,79836.3%35,261Boundary3,10172.6%1,07525.2%952.2%2,02647.4%4,271Butte78876.4%21420.8%292.8%57455.6%1,031Camas37169.0%15729.2%101.8%21439.8%538Canyon40,63663.9%21,83934.3%1,1181.8%18,79729.6%63,593Caribou1,82480.5%37116.4%723.1%1,45364.1%2,267Cassia4,88879.1%1,11118.0%1812.9%3,77761.1%6,180Clark19577.1%4718.6%114.4%14858.5%253Clearwater2,31073.2%77924.7%672.1%1,53148.5%3,156Custer1,51871.5%54525.7%612.9%97345.8%2,124Elmore4,58265.2%2,25332.0%1962.8%2,32933.2%7,031Franklin3,22884.2%41610.9%1894.9%2,81273.3%3,833Fremont3,79879.4%84117.6%1453.0%2,95761.8%4,784Gem5,43876.2%1,57222.0%1311.8%3,86654.2%7,141Gooding3,20972.6%1,11025.1%1032.3%2,09947.5%4,422Idaho5,47878.0%1,37219.5%1772.5%4,10658.5%7,027Jefferson7,12581.8%1,30715.0%2773.2%5,81866.8%8,709Jerome3,80870.7%1,44026.7%1362.5%2,36844.0%5,384Kootenai38,17367.3%17,62031.1%9531.7%20,55336.2%56,746Latah6,80342.5%8,98156.1%2131.4%-2,178-13.6%15,997Lemhi2,47071.9%88325.7%822.4%1,58746.2%3,435Lewis1,05175.2%32623.3%201.5%72551.9%1,397Lincoln1,02268.7%41928.2%473.2%60340.5%1,488Madison6,88778.5%1,52017.3%3664.2%5,36761.2%8,773Minidoka3,84974.7%1,17922.9%1272.5%2,67051.8%5,155Nez Perce8,84561.2%5,38537.3%2201.5%3,46023.9%14,450Oneida1,24982.4%20013.2%674.5%1,04969.2%1,516Owyhee2,61375.4%77222.3%822.4%1,84153.1%3,467Payette5,55373.1%1,89024.9%1522.0%3,66348.2%7,595Power1,45666.4%68131.0%572.6%77535.4%2,194Shoshone2,56460.1%1,62338.1%761.8%94122.0%4,263Teton2,05542.8%2,63654.9%1092.3%-581-12.1%4,800Twin Falls16,10265.7%7,74231.6%6482.6%8,36034.1%24,492Valley2,67651.5%2,44247.0%811.5%2344.5%5,199Washington2,84972.8%1,00425.7%611.6%1,84547.1%3,914Totals361,66159.8%231,08138.2%12,3892.0%130,58021.6%605,131 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Bannock (largest municipality: Pocatello)

By congressional district Little won both congressional districts. District Little Jordan Representative63%35%Raúl Labrador (115th Congress)Russ Fulcher (116th Congress) 56% 42%Mike Simpson

2018 Idaho gubernatorial election

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