Opinion polling for the 2015 Canadian federal election

This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted from the 2011 Canadian federal election leading up to the 2015 Canadian federal election, which was held on October 19, 2015. For riding-specific polls see 2015 constituency polls.

Campaign period Graphical summary

Polling firm Last dateof polling Link CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC Marginof error Samplesize Polling method Lead 2015 election 31.9 19.7 39.5 4.7 3.4 N/A 17,559,353 N/A 7.6 Nanos Research 30.5 19.7 39.1 5.5 4.6 ±3.5 pp 800 telephone 8.6 Forum Research 30 20 40 6 3 ±3 pp 1,373 IVR 10 EKOS 31.9 20.4 35.8 4.9 5.6 ±2.1 pp 2,122 IVR/telephone – rolling (1/3) 3.9 EKOS 32.6 21.0 34.3 5.4 5.4 ±2.4 pp 1,621 IVR/telephone – rolling (1/2) 1.7 Ipsos Reid 31 22 38 4 4 ±2.2 pp 2,503 online/telephone 7 Nanos Research 30.5 22.1 37.3 4.6 4.7 ±2.2 pp 2,000 telephone – rolling (2/5) 6.8 EKOS 33.3 21.9 33.7 4.7 4.1 ±2.5 pp 1,537 IVR/telephone – rolling (1/2) 0.4 Nanos Research 30.7 22.6 37.0 4.4 4.7 ±2.5 pp 1,600 telephone – rolling (1/2) 6.3 Léger Marketing 30 22 38 6 4 ±2.1 pp 2,086 online 8 Angus Reid 31 22 35 5 5 ±2.2 pp 2,022 online 4 Mainstreet Research 33 21 38 4 5 ±1.4 pp 5,546 IVR 5 EKOS 32.8 22.7 34.0 3.4 5.1 ±2.3 pp 1,813 IVR/telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.2 Nanos Research 30.6 23.5 36.5 4.3 4.7 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 5.9 Forum Research 31 24 37 6 2 ±3 pp 1,438 IVR 6 EKOS 32.6 22.9 33.5 3.4 5.6 ±2.6 pp 1,438 IVR/telephone – rolling (1/3) 0.9 Nanos Research 29.4 23.7 37.1 5.0 4.3 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 7.7 EKOS 29.9 24.1 34.1 3.8 6.4 ±2.9 pp 1,179 IVR/telephone – rolling (1/3) 4.2 Nanos Research 29.2 24.5 36.1 5.2 4.3 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 6.9 Ipsos Reid 31 24 37 5 2 ±3.0 pp 1,349 online 6 EKOS 31.1 20.6 35.6 3.2 7.5 ±2.9 pp 1,115 IVR/telephone – rolling (2/3) 4.5 Nanos Research 28.9 24.3 35.7 5.7 4.8 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 6.8 Innovative Research 30 22 38 3 6 ±3.1 pp 1,143 telephone 8 EKOS 35.5 19.0 33.1 3.3 7.4 ±2.6 pp 1,428 IVR/telephone – rolling (2/3) 2.4 Nanos Research 29.0 25.0 35.1 5.2 5.1 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 6.1 Forum Research 31 23 37 5 3 ±3 pp 1,427 IVR 6 Nanos Research 28.6 24.9 34.8 5.5 5.4 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 6.2 Angus Reid 33 25 31 6 3 ±3 pp 1,083 online 2 EKOS 33.7 20.4 33.8 3.5 7.2 ±2.4 pp 1,618 IVR/telephone – rolling (1/3) 0.1 Nanos Research 31.0 25.0 34.0 5.3 4.2 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 3.0 Innovative Research 30 24 35 5 5 n.a 3,417 online 5 Mainstreet Research 36 20 35 4 5 ±1.3 pp 5,630 IVR 1 Léger Marketing 30 25 34 6 4 ±2.1 pp 2,087 online 4 EKOS 32.5 21.1 34.1 3.6 7.3 ±2.3 pp 1,753 IVR/telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.6 Nanos Research 31.6 24.2 33.5 5.6 4.6 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.9 Forum Research 31 26 35 4 3 ±3 pp 1,447 IVR 4 Abacus Data 33 24 32 4 5 ±2.2 pp 2,000 online 1 EKOS 34.1 21.4 32.3 4.0 6.9 ±2.3 pp 1,788 IVR/telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.8 Nanos Research 32.1 23.0 34.3 5.1 4.6 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 2.2 EKOS 35.1 22.2 30.9 4.0 6.6 ±2.4 pp 1,658 IVR/telephone – rolling 4.2 Nanos Research 31.5 23.1 35.0 4.9 4.6 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 3.5 Ipsos Reid 33 26 32 5 3 ±2.9 pp 1,441 online 1 Nanos Research 31.0 22.8 35.6 4.8 4.7 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 4.6 Nanos Research 31.0 24.3 35.3 4.3 4.5 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 4.3 Nanos Research 30.5 25.1 34.6 4.5 4.8 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 4.1 Mainstreet Research 37 24 29 4 7 ±1.4 pp 5,197 IVR 8 Innovative Research 29 29 31 5 6 n.a 1,562 online 2 Nanos Research 31.9 25.9 33.5 4.3 3.9 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.6 Léger Marketing 30 26 32 6 6 ±2.1 pp 2,107 online 2 Angus Reid 34 27 27 6 5 ±2.5 pp 2,021 online 7 Nanos Research 32.8 26.1 31.7 4.8 4.1 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.1 Forum Research 34 28 27 5 5 ±3 pp 1,499 IVR 6 Nanos Research 32.1 26.3 32.2 4.6 4.4 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 0.1 EKOS 33.4 25.6 26.7 5.3 7.8 ±1.9 pp 2,609 IVR 6.7 Nanos Research 32.6 27.0 31.4 4.4 4.0 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.2 Ipsos Reid 32 27 33 4 4 ±3.0 pp 1,354 online 1 Nanos Research 33.0 26.9 31.6 4.2 3.6 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.4 Abacus Data 32 27 29 5 5 ±1.6 pp 3,814 online 3 Nanos Research 31.5 27.6 32.5 4.0 3.7 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.0 Nanos Research 29.6 30.3 31.8 3.1 4.5 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.5 Nanos Research 28.9 31.1 32.3 2.5 4.2 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.2 Innovative Research 31 29 28 3 8 n.a. 2,805 online 2 Forum Research 31 28 31 4 4 ±3 pp 1,557 IVR Tie Nanos Research 30.5 30.8 31.5 2.3 3.7 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 0.7 Léger Marketing 31 29 31 5 5 ±2.1 pp 2,115 online Tie Innovative Research 32 27 30 3 7 ±2.5 pp 1,784 telephone 2 Nanos Research 31.5 29.1 31.6 2.6 4.2 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 0.1 EKOS 35.4 24.5 26.3 4.2 7.7 ±2.0 pp 2,343 IVR 9.1 Nanos Research 31.3 29.4 30.3 3.4 4.6 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.0 Ipsos Reid 27 30 33 5 4 ±3.4 pp 1,103 online 3 Nanos Research 31.0 29.1 29.4 3.8 5.5 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.6 Nanos Research 30.8 29.1 30.3 3.7 5.1 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 0.5 Forum Research 33 29 29 4 4 ±3 pp 922 IVR 4 Nanos Research 30.4 28.9 30.8 3.0 6.0 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 0.4 Nanos Research 29.1 31.3 31.0 2.3 5.8 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 0.3 Nanos Research 30.1 30.4 30.9 2.5 5.8 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 0.5 Forum Research 32 30 28 4 6 ±3 pp 1,402 IVR 2 Nanos Research 29.0 31.6 30.1 2.8 5.3 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.5 Environics 26 34 29 4 8 ±3.6 pp 1,001 telephone 5 EKOS 29.6 29.9 27.4 3.7 7.6 ±1.9 pp 2,704 IVR 0.3 Nanos Research 31.0 30.4 29.6 2.9 4.8 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 0.6 Ipsos Reid 29 32 31 4 4 ±3.6 pp 980 online 1 Nanos Research 30.2 31.3 30.3 2.6 4.3 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.0 Nanos Research 31.7 30.8 30.5 2.5 4.1 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 0.9 Abacus Data 29 31 29 4 6 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 2 Nanos Research 30.9 30.1 31.7 2.8 4.0 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 0.8 Forum Research 28 36 29 3 3 ±3 pp 1,308 IVR 7 Nanos Research 30.8 29.9 30.9 3.2 4.6 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 0.1 Innovative Research 28 31 30 4 6 ±2.2 pp 2,121 online 1 Nanos Research 28.6 30.6 32.1 3.6 4.8 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.5 Nanos Research 25.9 31.2 32.5 3.7 6.1 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling (1/3) 1.3 Ipsos Reid 29 34 30 3 3 ±3.6 pp 949 online 4 EKOS 31.8 29.6 26.9 4.6 5.9 ±1.9 pp 2,677 IVR 2.2 Nanos Research 26.2 32.7 30.8 3.7 6.0 ±2.8 pp 1,200 telephone – rolling 1.9 Léger Marketing 28 31 30 4 5 ±2.1 pp 2,119 online 1 Forum Research 24 36 32 4 4 ±3 pp 1,384 IVR 4 EKOS 29.5 30.2 27.7 4.2 6.4 ±1.7 pp 3,243 IVR 0.7 Abacus Data 30 31 28 3 7 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 1 Nanos Research 28.8 30.8 29.7 4.2 5.4 ±3.1 pp 1,000 telephone – rolling (1/4) 1.1 Innovative Research 30 32 27 4 6 ±1.7 pp 3,274 online 2 Ipsos Reid 29 33 30 4 4 ±3.5 pp 1,000 online 3 EKOS 28.1 33.6 26.7 4.1 5.8 ±1.7 pp 3,524 IVR 5.5 Forum Research 23 40 30 3 3 ±3 pp 1,440 IVR 10 Angus Reid 32 36 23 4 4 ±1.2 pp 6,226 online 4 Nanos Research 30.1 29.1 29.9 4.7 5.2 ±3.1 pp 1,000 telephone – rolling (1/4) 0.2 Forum Research 29 34 28 4 4 ±3 pp 1,473 IVR 5 Abacus Data 29 35 26 3 6 ±2.6 pp 1,439 online 6 Nanos Research 31.8 29.0 28.7 4.5 5.3 ±3.1 pp 1,000 telephone – rolling (1/4) 2.8 Léger Marketing 27 33 28 5 6 ±2.1 pp 2,095 online 5 Mainstreet Research 31 30 29 4 6 ±1.35 pp 5,401 IVR 1 Forum Research 28 34 27 6 4 ±3 pp 1,392 IVR 6 EKOS 30.4 31.8 24.2 4.2 7.3 ±1.8 pp 3,055 IVR 1.4 Ipsos Reid 30.8 33.0 27.8 3.9 4.0 ±2.38 pp 2,022 telephone/online 2.2 Nanos Research 31.2 30.4 28.6 4.2 5.0 ±3.1 pp 1,000 telephone – rolling (1/4) 0.8 Forum Research 28 39 25 5 3 ±3 pp 1,399 IVR 11

Notes In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size. Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters. "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next, with the fraction in parentheses indicating the proportion of independent data compared to the previous published poll in the series. Identifies polling firms that explicitly apply a "likely voter" turnout adjustment to their top-line results.

Pre-campaign period Graphical summary