2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election

The 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election was held on November 21, 2015, to elect the governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Republican governor Bobby Jindal was not eligible to run for re-election to a third term because of term limits established by the Louisiana Constitution.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate regardless of their party affiliation. As no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election on October 24, 2015, a runoff election was held on November 21, 2015, between the top two candidates in the primary. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).

The runoff election featured Democrat John Bel Edwards, Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives, and Republican U.S. senator David Vitter, as they were the top two vote getters in the primary. Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, both Republicans, were eliminated in the jungle primary.

In the November 21, 2015 runoff, Edwards defeated Vitter by a count of 56.11% to 43.89% and was sworn in on January 11, 2016. This was the only statewide victory in 2015 for Democrats in Louisiana, and was the first time Democrats won a statewide election in the state since Mary Landrieu won her third term in the U.S. Senate in 2008. Edwards' victory also came one year after national wins for the Republican Party in congressional and state elections, including Landrieu’s failed 2014 re-election bid. This was the first election since 1968 that a Democratic candidate for governor won during a Democratic presidency. The election was one of the most expensive in state history, with over $50 million spent by the candidates and outside groups.

Candidates

Republican Party

Filed Scott Angelle, Public Service Commissioner and former lieutenant governor of Louisiana Jay Dardenne, Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana David Vitter, U.S. senator

Declined John Neely Kennedy, Louisiana State Treasurer (running for re-election) Newell Normand, Sheriff of Jefferson Parish (endorsed Dardenne) Michael G. Strain, Commissioner of Agriculture and Forestry (running for re-election) Rodney Alexander, former secretary of the Louisiana Department of Veterans Affairs and former U.S. representative Burl Cain, Warden of the Louisiana State Penitentiary Gerald Long, state senator Buddy Roemer, former governor, former U.S. representative and candidate for president in 2012

Democratic Party

Filed John Bel Edwards, Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives Cary Deaton, candidate for governor in 2011 SL Simpson

Declined Mary Landrieu, former U.S. senator, state treasurer and candidate for governor in 1995 Mitch Landrieu, Mayor of New Orleans and former lieutenant governor of Louisiana John Georges, Businessman and independent candidate for governor in 2007 Jason Williams, New Orleans City Council President Tony Clayton, prosecutor of the 18th Judicial District Court, member of the Southern University system board James Bernhard, businessman Foster Campbell, Public Service Commissioner, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2007

Ineligible Edwin Edwards, former governor, U.S. representative and state senator (ineligible due to 2000 felony convictions for bribery and racketeering)

Independents

Filed Beryl Billiot, restaurant owner and former Marine Jeremy Odom, minister Eric Paul Orgeronurl=http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=218927.0

Declined

Melvin Slack, candidate for Mayor of Shreveport in 2014 Russel L. Honoré, retired lieutenant general and former commander of Joint Task Force Katrina

Endorsements

Jungle primary

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ScottAngelle (R) JayDardenne (R) John BelEdwards (D) JohnKennedy (R) MitchLandrieu (D) DavidVitter (R) Other UndecidedMarblePortLLC MarblePortLLC October 20–21, 2015 1464 12.7% 14.1% 40.5% — — 28.5% — 4.3%MRI MRI October 15–19, 2015 600 17% 14% 36% — — 19% 2% 12%Harper Polling (R)Harper Polling (R) October 16–17, 2015 612 14% 14% 36% — — 26% — 9%KPLC/Raycom MediaKPLC/Raycom Media October 7–13, 2015 602 7% 8% 24% — — 21% — 37%The Advocate/WWL-TV September 20–23, 2015 800 15% 14% 24% — — 24% — 18%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 21–22, 2015 616 15% 14% 28% — — 27% — 17%Verne KennedyVerne Kennedy July 27–31, 2015 600 25% 12% 20% — — 22% — 21%MarblePortMarblePort June 17, 2015 1415 11.1% 10.4% 28.8% — — 34.1% — 15.6%Verne KennedyVerne Kennedy May 27–29, 2015 700 17% 12% 29% — — 29% — 13%SM&O ResearchSM&O Research May 5, 2015 600 6% 17% 25% — — 38% — 16%MarblePortMarblePort March 17, 2015 1,071 7% 14% 31% — — 34% — 14%Triumph March 5, 2015 1,655 ± 2.4% 7% 15% 33% — — 35% — 11%NSO Research*NSO Research* January 10–13, 2015 600 ± 4% 2% 10% 20% 13% — 24% — 32%SM&O Research December 9–11, 2014 600 ± ? 3.1% 18.6% 25.7% — — 36.3% — 16.3%SuffolkSuffolk October 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 3% 9.8% 3.8% — 22.6% 31.6% — 29.2%Multi-Quest October 22–24, 2014 606 ± 4% 2.3% 10.9% 4% — — 25.9% 3.8%Foster Campbell (D) 53.1%SM&O Research April 28–30, 2014 600 ± ? 3.8% 10.5% 5.5% 11.7% 28.9% 28.9% — 10.6%PSBPSB April 2014 601 ± ? — 14% 17% 8% — 18% 14%Newell Normand (R) 10%, Mike Strain (R) 4% 29%MagellanMagellan March 24–26, 2014 600 ± 4.1% — 13.1% 4.6% 8.5% 26.4% 27.6% — 19.8%V/C ResearchV/C Research February 20–25, 2014 600 ± 4% — 11% 8% 9% 33% 25% — 15%Kitchens Group**Kitchens Group** February 10–12, 2014 600 ± 4.2% — 9% 21% 7% — 26% — 38%WPAOR^ November 12–14, 2013 800 ± 3.5% — 12% 2% 9% 20% 25% 11%Rodney Alexander (R) 4%, Foster Campbell (D) 2%, John Georges (D) 2%, Jim Bernhard (D) 1%, Gerald Long (R) 1%, Newell Normand (R) 1% 11 — 22% — — 29% 35% — 14%SM&O Research November 6–12, 2013 600 ± 4% 2.1% 18% 7.9% 18.9% — 30.3% — 22.9%MagellanMagellan October 2–4, 2012 2,862 ± 1.9% — 6.5% — 7.2% 29.4% 31.1% 9.1%John Georges (D) 6%, Mike Strain (R) 3.1% 16.7% * Internal poll for the John Kennedy campaign ** Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign ^ Internal poll for the Jay Dardenne campaign

Results

Runoff Campaign

A debate between Edwards and Vitter was held on November 10 by Louisiana Public Broadcasting and the Council for a Better Louisiana.

Early voting was possible from November 7 until November 14. Despite having one fewer day due to Veterans Day, turnout was significantly higher compared to the primary election early voting, especially among black voters and in urban parishes.

Debates Complete video of debate, November 10, 2015

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 13, 2015 Rothenberg Political Report November 6, 2015 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 19, 2015 DKE October 29, 2015

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror DavidVitter (R) John BelEdwards (D) UndecidedJMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics November 19, 2015 614 ± 3.9% 43% 47% 10%RRH ElectionsRRH Elections November 12–16, 2015 359 ± 5% 42% 48% 10%JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics November 14–16, 2015 635 ± 3.9% 35% 51% 13%JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics November 14–16, 2015 635 ± 4% 38% 54% 8%Market Research InsightMarket Research Insight November 11–14, 2015 600 ± 4% 38% 53% 9%Hayride/MarblePortHayride/MarblePort November 11, 2015 978 ± 3.1% 42% 48% 10%Market Research Insight November 11, 2015 600 ± 4% 38% 52% 10%UNO Survey Research Center November 2–8, 2015 600 ± 4% 34% 56% 10%Triumph Campaigns November 5, 2015 1,818 ± 3% 41% 49% 10%WVLA/JMC AnalyticsWVLA/JMC Analytics October 28–31, 2015 600 ± 4% 32% 52% 16%Market Research Insight October 27–28, 2015 600 ± 4.1% 38% 54% 8%Anzalone Liszt Grove October 26–28, 2015 700 ± 3.7% 40% 52% 7%KPLC/Raycom Media October 7–13, 2015 602 ± 4% 33% 52% ?%The Advocate/WWL-TV September 20–23, 2015 800 ± 3.46% 41% 45% ?%Public Policy Polling September 21–22, 2015 616 ± 4% 38% 50% 12%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 50% 32% 18%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 52% 30% 17%The Kitchen Group*The Kitchen Group* February 10–12, 2014 600 ± 4.2% 38% 32% 31%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 51% 30% 19% *Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign

Dardenne vs. Landrieu Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JayDardenne (R) MitchLandrieu (D) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 43% 39% 18%Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 43% 43% 15%Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 46% 36% 18%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 35% 45% 20%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 42% 44% 15%

Duke vs. Edwards Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror DavidDuke (R) EdwinEdwards (D) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 15% 62% 23%

Vitter vs. Landrieu Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror DavidVitter (R) MitchLandrieu (D) UndecidedSM&O Research April 28–30, 2014 600 ± ? 52.8% 41.8% 5.5%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing November 12–14, 2014 643 ± 4% 54% 36% 10%Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 47% 38% 14%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing September 5–9, 2014 426 ± 5% 46% 44% 11%Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 48% 44% 8%Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 50% 37% 13%Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 42% 45% 14%Harper PollingHarper Polling August 14–15, 2013 596 ± 4.01% 45% 43% 12%Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 44% 44% 13%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies October 2–4, 2012 2,862 ± 1.9% 45.2% 39.8% 15%

Results Edwards' win was the first statewide win for Democrats in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won a third term to the Senate in 2008. He performed surprisingly well for a Democratic candidate in Louisiana, given that the Cook PVI for the state was R+12 at the time of the election and most Republican candidates won in landslides in prior statewide elections. He performed especially well in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport), East Baton Rouge Parish, (home of Baton Rouge), and in the reliably Democratic Orleans Parish, (home of New Orleans). Turnout was slightly higher in the November run-off than in the October jungle primary.

By congressional district Edwards won five of six congressional districts, including four that were represented by Republicans. District Vitter Edwards Representative1st 57% 43%Steve Scalise 2nd 17% 83%Cedric Richmond3rd 49.9% 50.1%Charles Boustany4th 47% 53%John Fleming5th 46% 54%Ralph Abraham6th 46% 54%Garret Graves

See also 2015 Louisiana elections

References

External links David Vitter for Governor