A jobless recovery or jobless growth is an economic phenomenon in which a macroeconomy experiences growth while maintaining or decreasing its level of employment. The term was coined by the economist Nick Perna in the early 1990s.
Causes Some argue that a jobless recovery is caused by increased productivity through automation, which allows economic growth without reducing unemployment or enabling economies to provide universal basic income. However, critics view this as an example of the luddite fallacy, suggesting instead that jobless recoveries result from structural changes in the labor market. These changes lead to unemployment as workers require new skills, but the education system has not adapted to provide relevant knowledge and competencies. Other economists attribute jobless recoveries to broader macroeconomic misalignments between endogenous growth, labor absorption capacity, and the distribution of income and wealth.
Industrial consolidation Some have argued that the recent lack of job creation in the United States is due to increased industrial consolidation and growth of monopoly or oligopoly power.Who Broke America’s Jobs Machine? Why creeping consolidation is crushing American livelihoods., by Barry C. Lynn and Phillip Longman, Washington Monthly The argument is twofold: firstly, small businesses create most American jobs, and secondly, small businesses have more difficulty starting and growing in the face of entrenched existing businesses (compare infant industry argument, applied at the level of industries, rather than individual firms).
Population growth vs. employment growth
In addition to employment growth, population growth must also be considered concerning the perception of jobless recoveries. Immigrants (both legal and illegal) added to the workforce will often accept lower wages, causing persistent unemployment among those who were previously employed.
Surprisingly, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does not offer data-sets isolated to the working-age population (ages 16 to 65). Including retirement age individuals in most BLS data-sets may tend to obfuscate the analysis of employment creation in relation to population growth. Additionally, incorrect assumptions about the term, Labor force, might also occur when reading BLS publications, millions of employable persons are not included within the official definition. The Labor force, as defined by the BLS, is a strict definition of those officially unemployed (U-3), and those who are officially employed (1 hour or more).
The following table and included chart depicts year-to-year employment growth in comparison to population growth for those persons under 65 years of age. As such, baby boomer retirements are removed from the data as a factor for consideration. The table includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, for the Civilian noninstitutional population and corresponding Employment Levels, dating from 1948 and includes October 2013, the age groups are 16 years & over, and 65 years & over. The working-age population is then determined by subtracting those age 65 and over from the Civilian noninstitutional population and Employment Levels respectively. Isolated into the traditional working-age subset, growth in both employment levels and population levels are totaled by decade, an employment percentage rate is also displayed for comparison by decade.
When examined, by decade, the first decade of the 2000s, the United States suffered a 5% jobless rate when compared to the added working age population.
U.S. Growth: Employment level growth Vs. population level growth by decade Civilian noninstitutional population Working-age population Employment levelsWorking-age employment Year Age: 16 years & over Age: 65 yrs. & over Age: 16 to 65 yrs. Growth – decade Age: 16 years & over Age: 65 yrs. & over Age: 16 to 65 Growth – decade Percent emp. 1948103,468,00010,881,00092,587,00058,554,0002,906,00055,648,000 1949104,524,00011,191,00093,333,000—57,712,0002,926,00054,786,000—— 1950104,872,00011,534,00093,338,00059,352,0002,845,00056,507,000 1951104,810,00011,918,00092,892,00060,252,0002,858,00057,394,000 1952105,812,00012,334,00093,478,00060,748,0003,000,00057,748,000 1953107,623,00013,257,00094,366,00059,796,0002,882,00056,914,000 1954108,892,00013,520,00095,372,00059,990,0002,963,00057,027,000 1955110,296,00013,925,00096,371,00063,268,0003,213,00060,055,000 1956111,526,00014,215,00097,311,00063,619,0003,213,00060,406,000 1957113,013,00014,516,00098,497,00063,598,0003,089,00060,509,000 1958114,429,00014,821,00099,608,00063,266,0002,855,00060,411,000 1959116,040,00015,148,000100,892,0007,559,00064,927,0003,024,00061,903,0007,117,00094.15% 1960118,001,00015,508,000102,493,00065,287,0003,176,00062,111,000 1961119,214,00015,861,000103,353,00065,531,0002,885,00062,646,000 1962121,236,00016,880,000104,356,00066,585,0002,821,00063,764,000 1963123,360,00017,014,000106,346,00067,791,0002,765,00065,026,000 1964125,468,00017,296,000108,172,00069,543,0002,913,00066,630,000 1965127,294,00017,580,000109,714,00071,819,0002,926,00068,893,000 1966128,730,00017,860,000110,870,00073,600,0002,892,00070,708,000 1967130,936,00018,194,000112,742,00075,337,0003,030,00072,307,000 1968133,120,00018,500,000114,620,00076,699,0003,086,00073,613,000 1969135,489,00018,825,000116,664,00015,772,00078,789,0003,069,00075,720,00013,817,00087.60% 1970138,529,00019,202,000119,327,00078,651,0003,032,00075,619,000 1971141,666,00019,605,000122,061,00080,527,0003,005,00077,522,000 1972145,446,00020,229,000125,217,00083,424,0002,909,00080,515,000 1973148,479,00020,536,000127,943,00086,390,0002,787,00083,603,000 1974151,494,00021,214,000130,280,00086,169,0002,794,00083,375,000 1975154,589,00021,803,000132,786,00086,689,0002,680,00084,009,000 1976157,438,00022,309,000135,129,00089,850,0002,791,00087,059,000 1977160,377,00022,874,000137,503,00094,183,0002,903,00091,280,000 1978163,272,00023,450,000139,822,00097,669,0003,006,00094,663,000 1979166,300,00024,067,000142,233,00025,569,000100,013,0003,002,00097,011,00021,291,00083.27% 1980168,883,00024,597,000144,286,00099,579,0002,907,00096,672,000 1981171,166,00025,109,000146,057,00099,562,0002,928,00096,634,000 1982173,199,00025,619,000147,580,00098,849,0002,878,00095,971,000 1983175,121,00026,160,000148,961,000102,803,0002,878,00099,925,000 1984177,306,00026,712,000150,594,000106,049,0002,797,000103,252,000 1985179,112,00027,266,000151,846,000108,063,0002,841,000105,222,000 1986181,547,00027,791,000153,756,000110,588,0002,909,000107,679,000 1987183,620,00028,362,000155,258,000113,679,0003,126,000110,553,000 1988185,402,00028,875,000156,527,000115,978,0003,264,000112,714,000 1989187,165,00029,462,000157,703,00015,470,000117,698,0003,352,000114,346,00017,335,000112.06% 1990190,017,00029,453,000160,564,000118,110,0003,256,000114,854,000 1991191,798,00029,893,000161,905,000117,395,0003,193,000114,202,000 1992193,784,00030,396,000163,388,000118,990,0003,341,000115,649,000 1993195,794,00030,784,000165,010,000121,578,0003,394,000118,184,000 1994197,765,00031,181,000166,584,000124,729,0003,641,000121,088,000 1995199,508,00031,629,000167,879,000125,136,0003,676,000121,460,000 1996201,636,00031,902,000169,734,000127,903,0003,807,000124,096,000 1997204,098,00032,071,000172,027,000130,785,0003,933,000126,852,000 1998206,270,00032,275,000173,995,000132,732,0003,855,000128,877,000 1999208,832,00032,538,000176,294,00018,591,000134,696,0003,984,000130,712,00016,366,00088.03% 2000213,736,00033,590,000180,146,000137,846,0004,244,000133,602,000 2001216,315,00033,823,000182,492,000136,269,0004,300,000131,969,000 2002218,741,00034,004,000184,737,000136,599,0004,248,000132,351,000 2003222,509,00034,432,000188,077,000138,556,0004,711,000133,845,000 2004224,640,00034,796,000189,844,000140,278,0004,902,000135,376,000 2005227,425,00035,208,000192,217,000142,918,0005,263,000137,655,000 2006230,108,00035,841,000194,267,000146,081,0005,617,000140,464,000 2007233,156,00036,603,000196,553,000146,334,0005,787,000140,547,000 2008235,035,00037,522,000197,513,000143,350,0006,084,000137,266,000 2009236,924,00038,362,000198,562,00022,268,000137,953,0006,193,000131,760,0001,048,0004.71% 2010238,889,00039,045,000199,844,000139,159,0006,376,000132,783,000 2011240,584,00040,364,000200,220,000140,681,0006,893,000133,788,000 2012244,350,00042,695,000201,655,000143,060,0007,412,000135,648,000 2013246,745,00044,155,000202,590,000144,423,0007,748,000136,675,000 2014249,027,00045,685,000203,342,000147,190,0008,140,000139,050,0002015251,936,00047,269,000204,667,000149,703,0008,552,000141,151,0002016254,742,00048,837,000205,905,0007,343,000151,798,0008,820,000142,978,00011,218,000152.77% Pre and Post 2000 Comparisons (working age)Pop. GrowthEmployment Growth1900s 1950 to 199982,961,00075,926,00091.52% 2000s 2000 to 2016 29,611,00012,266,00041.42%Bold denotes datum used to produce "Working-Age: Growth Decade" calculation Decade example = End of year 1949 to end of year 1959 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population SurveySeries Id: LNU00000000 Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Unadj.) population Level Labor force status: Civilian noninstitutional population age: 16 years and overSeries Id: LNU02000000 Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Unadj.) employment Level Labor force status: Employed Age: 16 years and overSeries Id:LNU00000097 Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Unadj.) population Level - 65 yrs. & over Labor force status: Civilian noninstitutional population age: 65 years and over Series Id: LNU02000097 Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Unadj.) employment Level - 65 yrs. & over Labor force status: Employed Age: 65 years and over
See also Deindustrialization Employment-to-population ratio Ghost job Global labor arbitrage Involuntary unemployment Lost Decades Offshoring Structural unemployment
Notes and references
External links Exploding Productivity Growth: Context, Causes, and Implications