The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.
Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. representative Rick Hill won the Republican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%.Michael Barone, et al. The Almanac of American Politics 2014 (2013) (Kindle Locations 48242-48245). With a margin of 1.6%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Puerto Rico. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day. This was the last time anyone other than Greg Gianforte was the Republican nominee.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared Steve Bullock, Montana Attorney General Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext Running mate: Steve Nelsen, founder of the Montana Conservation Corps
Withdrew Larry Jent, state senator
Declined John Bohlinger, Lieutenant Governor of Montana Carl Borgquist, president of Grasslands Renewable Energy of Bozeman Dave Wanzenried, state senator Pat Williams, former U.S. representative
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror SteveBullock LarryJent Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 573 ± 4.1% 70% 6% — 24%
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared Bob Fanning, retired businessman Running mate: Joel Boniek, former state representative Former running mate: Chuck Baldwin, pastor and Constitution Party nominee for president in 2008 (dropped out February 2012) Rick Hill, former U.S. representative Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator Neil Livingstone, terrorism and national security analyst Running mate: Ryan Zinke, state senator Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director Running mate: Al Olszewski, orthopedic surgeon and Carroll College Trustee Ken Miller, former state senator and former chairman of the Montana Republican Party Running mate: Bill Gallagher, Public Service Commissioner Jim O'Hara, Chouteau County Commissioner Running mate: Scott Swingley, private investigator and former trooper in the Montana Highway Patrol Corey Stapleton, former state senator Running mate: Bob Keenan, former president of the Montana Senate
Withdrew Jeff Essmann, Majority Leader of the Montana Senate Drew Turiano, real estate investor
Declined Denny Rehberg, U.S. representative (ran for the U.S. Senate)
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JeffEssmann BobFanning RickHill NeilLivingstone JimLynch KenMiller JimO'Hara CoreyStapleton Other/UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 403 ± 4.88% — 1% 33% 5% 4% 12% 4% 7% 35%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 700 ± 3.7% 5% 1% 37% 3% 4% 10% 3% 2% 35%
Results
General election
Candidates Steve Bullock (D), Montana attorney general Running mate: John Walsh, brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard Rick Hill (R), former U.S. representative Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator Ron Vandevender (Libertarian), businessman Running mate: Marc Mulcahy
Debate Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 10, 2012
Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 1, 2012 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2012 Rothenberg Political Report November 2, 2012 Real Clear Politics November 5, 2012
Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated SteveBullock (D) RickHill (R) Other/UndecidedMarginReal Clear PoliticsReal Clear PoliticsSeptember 27 – November 3, 2012November 3, 201244.0%45.7%10.3%Hill +1.7%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror SteveBullock (D) RickHill (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012 836 ± 3.4% 48% 48% 2% 2%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon October 29–31, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 46% 49% 2% 3%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 8–10, 2012 737 ± 3.6% 42% 43% 8% 7%Montana State UniversityMontana State University September 27–30, 2012 477 ± 4.6% 38% 40% 2% 20%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon September 17–19, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 44% 43% 2% 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012 656 ± 3.2% 44% 39% 8% 9%Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 934 ± 3.2% 39% 39% — 21%Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 38% 39% — 23%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 37% 39% — 23%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 10–13, 2010 1,176 ± 2.9% 31% 41% — 28%
With Bohlinger Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JohnBohlinger (D) JeffEssmann (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 40% 33% — 28%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JohnBohlinger (D) RickHill (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 39% 40% — 21%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JohnBohlinger (D) KenMiller (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 39% 33% — 28%
With Bullock Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror SteveBullock (D) JeffEssmann (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 42% 30% — 28%Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 38% 33% — 28%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror SteveBullock (D) NeilLivingstone (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 41% 29% — 30%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror SteveBullock (D) KenMiller (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 934 ± 3.2% 41% 35% — 24%Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 40% 31% — 29%Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 38% 34% — 28%
With Jent Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror LarryJent (D) RickHill (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 26% 39% — 35%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror LarryJent (D) NeilLivingstone (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 26% 30% — 44%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror LarryJent (D) KenMiller (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ± 2.4% 25% 33% — 42%
With Wanzenried Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror DaveWanzenried (D) JeffEssmann (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 31% 33% — 36%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror DaveWanzenried (D) RickHill (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 30% 40% — 30%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror DaveWanzenried (D) KenMiller (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 30% 35% — 35%
Results
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Notes
References
External links Elections and Government – Montana Secretary of State
Official campaign websites (Archived) Steve Bullock for Governor Rick Hill for Governor Ron Vandevender for Governor