Opinion polling for the 2004 Canadian federal election

Polls leading up to the 2004 Canadian federal election.

Graphical summary

National polls + Evolution of voting intentions at national levelLast day of survey LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC Polling firm Sample Source Voting results36.729.615.712.44.3June 24, 2004333217135Léger± PDFJune 24, 2004343020124SES± PDFJune 24, 200432.631.819.011.24.9Ekos± 1.4PDFJune 23, 2004323117126Ipsos± HTMLJune 23, 2004343315135CompassPDFJune 23, 2004343021123SES± PDFJune 22, 2004343121123SES± PDFJune 22, 2004333318115Environics± PDFJune 21, 2004343121104SES± PDFJune 20, 2004342816136Ipsos± HTMLJune 20, 2004333318125SES± PDFJune 18, 2004342922105NanosJune 17, 2004293216127Ipsos± HTMLJune 16, 2004323221124SES± PDFJune 16, 2004323419123NanosJune 16, 2004343516124Léger± PDFJune 16, 2004353417113Compas± PDFLeaders Debate in English (June 15, 2004)Leaders Debate in French (June 14, 2004)June 13, 2004313217126Ipsos± HTMLJune 13, 2004333418115SES± PDFJune 10, 2004333418115SES± PDFJune 9, 2004323717105SES± PDFJune 9, 200430341912Ekos± PDFJune 8, 2004333715105SES± PDFJune 8, 2004323116117Ipsos± HTMLJune 7, 2004313516116SES± PDFJune 7, 2004333019125Léger± PDFJune 7, 2004323420114NanosJune 3, 2004323117116Ipsos± HTMLJune 3, 200437341793SES± PDFJune 2, 200435321994SES± PDFJune 1, 2004372919115SES± PDFMay 31, 2004353017125Léger± PDFMay 31, 2004362522135SES± PDFMay 30, 2004362620135SES± PDFMay 30, 2004343016116Ipsos± HTMLMay 29, 2004343119123SES± PDFMay 27, 200438301811Ekos± PDFMay 27, 2004403116103SES± PDFMay 26, 2004422917102SES± PDFMay 25, 2004412818113SES± PDFOfficial call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)

During the 37th Parliament of Canada

After the creation of the Conservative Party Last day of survey LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC Other Polling firm Sample SourceDissolution of the 37th Parliament of Canada (May 23, 2004)May 13, 2004402515Ipsos± 2.2The Globe and Mail. Grits sto be crushed in Quebec poll suggests. May 15, 2004. page A4.May 6, 20043826165Ipsos± HTMLApril 28, 2004402318115Ipsos± HTMLApril 24, 2004382617125Leger± PDFApril 18, 2004392919112Environics± HTMLApril 8, 2004352818105Ipsos± HTMLMarch 25, 2004382715105Ipsos± HTMLMarch 22, 200438261613Leger± PDFStephen Harper becomes leader of the Conservative Party of Canada (March 20, 2004)March 7, 20043826171242IpsosPDFFebruary 25, 200442321592Ekos± HTMLFebruary 12, 20043924181053Ipsos± PDFJanuary 29, 20044823151130SES± PDFJanuary 27, 200449211511Leger± PDFJanuary 15, 20044819161044Ipsos± PDFDecember 29, 200351241582Environics± 1 2Paul Martin becomes Prime Minister of Canada (December 12, 2003)Creation of the Conservative Party of Canada (7/12/2003)

Before the creation of the Conservative Party Last day of survey LPC NDP BQ GPC CA PC Other Polling firm Sample SourceNovember 27, 200343159510144Ipsos± PDFNovember 9, 200349121012161SES± PDFOctober 23, 200346118411154IpsosPDFSeptember 2, 20034615813190SES± PDFJune 9, 2003541051117Ekos± 2.5PDFJune 6, 2003441481616Environics± 2.2HTMLJune 5, 20034511951415Ipsos± 3.1HTMLPeter MacKay becomes leader of the Progressive Conservative Party (May 31, 2003)May 25, 2003551081214Leger± PDFMay 23, 2003521071218SES± PDFApril 17, 20035010941413IpsosPDFMarch 27, 20034414916152Environics± 2.3HTMLFebruary 20, 200347.317.27.610.714.1Ekos± 3.1PDFFebruary 11, 2003481471316SES± 3.1PDFJack Layton becomes leader of the NDP (January 25, 2003)January 16, 2003521471114Ekos± 3.1PDFJanuary 14, 20034315917151Environics± 1.6HTMLDecember 12, 200241128616170Ipsos± PDFDecember 4, 2002471181614Ekos± 2.8PDFNovember 3, 2002491371216SES± PDFSeptember 30, 200244139415151Ipsos± PDFJuly 14, 20024113816184Ipsos± PDFJuly 2, 2002461281812SES± PDFJune 18, 2002461471714Ipsos± PDFJune 20, 20024314101710Ipsos± PDFJune 9, 2002419101815Leger± PDFJune 6, 2002501181713Ekos± HTMLMay 30, 20024313101815Ipsos± HTMLMay 29, 2002461381713Ekos± 2.8PDFApril 24, 2002491061916SES± PDFMarch 28, 20024510101515Ipsos± HTMLMarch 24, 20024410913168Leger± PDFFebruary 21, 200247101012165Ipsos± PDFDecember 12, 2001541071116Ekos± July 29, 200152981018Ekos± PDFJuly 23, 2001499911203Ipsos± PDFJuly 13, 200148991016Leger± PDFJune 10, 20014611813202Environics± HTMLJune 8, 20014891010212Ipsos± PDFMay 31, 2001509101116Leger± May 30, 200155759195Gallup± May 27, 200150101011173Ipsos± PDFApril 26, 20014911913153Ipsos± PDFApril 24, 20014310919152Environics± HTMLMarch 29, 2001487919152Ipsos± PDFMarch 10, 2001441119145Ipsos± HTMLJanuary 31, 200149872113EkosHTMLJanuary 15, 20014510823113Environics± HTMLNovember 27, 200040.858.5110.720.8125.4912.191.43

Regional polls Atlantic Canada

Evolution of voting intentions in the provinces of AtlanticLast day of survey LPC CPC NDP GPC CA PC Other Polling firm Sample SourceVoting result43.830.022.63.0——0.5June 24, 20044524254NanosJune 24, 200439332800EkosPDFJune 23, 200444232670IpsosPDFJune 20, 200437411525IpsosPDFJune 9, 200443282540EkosPDFJune 7, 20044229226LégerPDFMay 31, 200441302162LégerPDFMay 30, 20044130262SES± 11.0PDFOfficial call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)May 20, 200450212413IpsosPDFApril 25, 20044634191SES± 10.0PDFMarch 22, 20043639186LégerPDFApril 17, 2003532105220IpsosPDFFebruary 20, 200355155232EkosPDFJanuary 16, 200359113262EkosPDFJanuary 14, 200349147281Environics± 4.6HTMLDecember 12, 2002461405340IpsosPDFJuly 18, 200253126272IpsosPDFJune 20, 200250159251IpsosPDFJune 9, 200255115227LégerPDFMay 30, 200253139250IpsosPDFApril 2002372212235LégerPDFMarch 28, 200249154311IpsosPDFFebruary 21, 20025772286IpsosPDFAugust 29, 200154122311EkosPDFAugust 13, 200150195234LégerPDFJuly 10, 200151129271Environics± HTMLMay 27, 200161115230IpsosPDFApril 24, 2001461211291Environics± HTMLApril 200151136263LégerPDFMarch 29, 200159611240IpsosPDF

Central Canada Quebec During the election campaign Last day of survey LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC Other Polling firm Sample SourceElection33.98.84.648.93.23.8June 24, 200428117513SES± 5.9PDFJune 24, 200432115484Including the Green Party of Canada.Leger± PDFJune 24, 200428117513EkosPDFJune 23, 200429954853IpsosPDFJune 22, 2004251010504EnvironicsHTMLJune 21, 20042613650CROP± 4.0PDFJune 20, 200423895333IpsosHTMLJune 17, 2004221394872IpsosPDFJune 16, 20043697462CompasPDFJune 16, 200430136483Leger± PDFJune 16, 20043095525SES± 7.6PDFJune 15, 200431157461Leger± PDFJune 13, 2004281174851IpsosPDFJune 9, 200422138543EkosPDFJune 9, 20043214844CROP± 4.0PDFJune 8, 20042498505IpsosHTMLJune 7, 200431138462LegerPDFJune 6, 2004301510433SES± 7.5PDFJune 3, 200428136454IpsosHTMLMay 31, 20043389462Leger± PDFMay 30, 20042944IpsosHTMLMay 30, 200430135493SES± PDFMay 27, 20043611645EkosPDFOfficial call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)

In 2004 (before the election campaign) Last day of survey LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC Other Polling firm Sample SourceMay 20, 20042878504IpsosPDFMay 20, 200434101542CROP± PDFMay 19, 20044043CompassMay 16, 200435107444Leger± 3.0PDFMay 13, 200431101046IpsosPDFMay 6, 20043641IpsosHTMLApril 28, 200433884651IpsosPDFApril 25, 200439101041CROP± PDFApril 25, 20043598462SES± PDFApril 24, 20043488463LegerPDFApril 18, 20043788452EnvironicsHTMLApril 8, 20043011104522IpsosHTMLMarch 29, 20043511945CROP± PDFMarch 25, 200433864472IpsosPDFMarch 22, 20043688453LegerPDFMarch 7, 200431684942IpsosPDFFebruary 26, 200432910481CROP± 4.0PDFFebruary 25, 20043844EkosHTMLFebruary 22, 20043838CROPPDFFebruary 19, 2004301094435IpsosPDFFebruary 12, 200434711471CROPPDFFebruary 12, 200440583953IpsosPDFJanuary 27, 2004466739LegerPDFJanuary 24, 200451510331CROP± 3.0PDFJanuary 18, 20044768363Leger± 3.4PDFJanuary 15, 200445363943IpsosPDF

In 2003 Last day of survey LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC CA PC Other Polling firm Sample SourceDecember 17, 2003505935CROP± 3.0PDFNovember 27, 2003408385343IpsosPDFNovember 25, 2003461038213LegerPDF November 23, 20035034CROPPDFOctober 23, 2003506314352IpsosPDFSeptember 29, 2003507355CROPPDFJuly 9, 20036520EkosPDFJuly 6, 200349356Environics± 4.5HTMLJune 5, 200352533414IpsosPDFMay 25, 20036262813LegerPDFApril 17, 200350336524IpsosPDFMarch 27, 200346838341Environics± 4.5HTMLFebruary 20, 200349935132EkosPDFJanuary 16, 200355531334Ekos± 6.31 2January 14, 2003411238341Environics± 3.2HTML

In 2002 Last day of survey LPC NDP BQ GPC CA PC Other Polling firm Sample SourceDecember 12, 20023912347250IpsosPDFNovember 24, 200240440385Leger774± 3.4PDFSeptember 30, 20023811364181IpsosPDFAugust 14, 2002381533752IpsosPDFJuly 18, 2002461226573IpsosPDFJune 20, 2002391239351IpsosHTMLJune 9, 2002376372711Leger± PDFMay 30, 200238123938IpsosHTMLMarch 28, 20024753835IpsosHTMLMarch 24, 200246437247LegerPDFFebruary 21, 200246639171IpsosPDF

In 2001 Last day of survey LPC NDP BQ GPC CA PC Other Polling firm Sample SourceDecember 12, 200146337177Leger± 1 2December 12, 200158331161Ekos HTMLAugust 29, 200150533291Ekos± 3.7PDFAugust 23, 200147537471IpsosPDFAugust 13, 200145537374Leger± 1 2July 10, 200149433491Environics± HTMLJuly 8, 2001434412100IpsosPDFMay 27, 2001442392112IpsosPDFMay 21, 2001453381103Leger1 2April 26, 200143736492IpsosPDFApril 24, 200141640563Environics± HTMLMarch 29, 200145437492IpsosPDFMarch 10, 20014632IpsosHTMLJanuary 31, 20015230Ekos± 5.1HTMLJanuary 15, 200142735654Environics± 4.5HTML2000 Election44.21.839.90.66.75.61.2

Ontario Evolution of voting intentions in OntarioLast day of survey LPC CPC NDP GPC CA PC Other Polling firm Sample SourceVoting result44.731.518.14.4——1.3June 24, 20043932254NanosJune 24, 20043932254SES± PDFJune 24, 200438352151EkosPDFJune 23, 200438342062IpsosPDFJune 22, 20044035195EnvironicsHTMLJune 20, 200442302062IpsosPDFJune 16, 20043640232SES± PDFJune 9, 20043438216EkosPDFJune 7, 20043536245LégerPDFJune 6, 20043343223SES± PDFMay 31, 200439371851Léger± PDFMay 30, 20043932253SES± PDFOfficial call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)March 22, 20044728196LégerPDFFebruary 25, 20044736152EkosHTMLApril 17, 2003589314151IpsosPDFMarch 27, 2003501515182Environics± 4.3HTMLFebruary 20, 200352208192EkosPDFJanuary 16, 200360158171EkosPDFJanuary 14, 2003531414181EnvironicsHTMLDecember 12, 20025111611220IpsosPDFMay 30, 2002551115190IpsosPDFAugust 29, 200162108202EkosPDFAugust 23, 2001531111222IpsosPDFAugust 13, 200158981511LégerPDFJuly 10, 2001511311241Environics± HTMLApril 24, 200154819182Environics± HTMLMarch 29, 200156818162IpsosPDFElection 200051.5—8.30.923.614.41.3

Prairies Evolution of voting intentions in Prairies (Manitoba and Saskatchewan)Last day of survey LPC CPC NDP GPC CA PC Other Polling firm Sample SourceVoting result30.340.423.42.7——3.1June 24, 20043934242SES± PDFJune 24, 20043040264LégerPDFJune 24, 200429373050EkosPDFJune 23, 200432362552IpsosPDFJune 20, 200433371776IpsosPDFJune 17, 200428362943IpsosPDFJune 16, 20043232306SES± PDFJune 13, 200421561642IpsosPDFJune 9, 20043236283EkosPDFJune 7, 20043538216LégerPDFJune 6, 20043542204SES± 11.4PDFMay 31, 200435342642LégerPDFMay 30, 20044135231SES± 11.0PDFOfficial call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)May 20, 200432402432IpsosPDFApril 25, 20043331334SES± 11.0PDFMarch 22, 20042540259LégerPDFApril 17, 20033827119131IpsosPDFFebruary 20, 2003472022100EkosPDFJanuary 16, 2003273123182EkosPDFDecember 12, 20022822432140IpsosPDFJuly 18, 2002331731163IpsosPDFJune 20, 2002371732140IpsosPDFJune 9, 2002261336187LégerPDFMay 30, 2002272232163IpsosPDFApril 2002302819176LégerPDFMarch 28, 2002292229145IpsosPDFFebruary 21, 2002411918157IpsosPDFAugust 29, 2001412118174EkosPDFAugust 13, 2001411614254LégerPDFMay 27, 2001402224123IpsosPDFMay 2001302019238LégerPDFMarch 29, 2001381830131IpsosPDF

Alberta