The 2002 Atlantic hurricane season featured a then-record eight named storms forming in September. It was a near-average Atlantic hurricane season, producing fourteen tropical cyclones, of which twelve developed into named storms; four became hurricanes, and two attained major hurricane status. The season officially started on June 1, and ended on November 30, dates which conventionally limit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic Ocean. While the season's first cyclone did not develop until July 14, activity quickly picked up: eight storms developed in the month of September. It ended early however, with no tropical storms forming after October 6, a rare occurrence caused partly by El Niño conditions.
The most intense hurricane of the season was Hurricane Isidore, a Category 3 storm on the Saffir–Simpson scale with a minimum atmospheric pressure of ; however, Hurricane Lili, with a minimum pressure of , attained higher winds and peaked at Category 4 status. Both storms also accounted for most of the deaths and damage during the 2002 season. Isidore caused about $1.28 billion in damage and killed seven people in the Yucatán Peninsula and later the United States, and Hurricane Lili, which caused $1.12 billion in damage and 15 deaths as it crossed the Caribbean Sea and eventually made landfall in Louisiana. Collectively, the cyclones of the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season caused approximately $2.43 billion in damage and 50 fatalities.
Seasonal forecasts +Predictions of tropical activity in the 2002 seasonSourceDateNamedstormsHurricanesMajorhurricanesCSUAverage (1950–2000)9.65.92.3NOAAAverage (1950–2005)11.06.22.7Record high activity30157Record low activity100CSUDecember 7, 20011384CSUApril 5, 20021273NOAAMay 20, 20029–136–82–3CSUAugust 7, 2002941NOAAAugust 8, 20027–104–61–3CSUSeptember 3, 2002831Actual activity 12 4 2
Noted hurricane expert William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University issue forecasts of hurricane activity each year, separately from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Gray's team determined the average number of storms per season between 1950 and 2000 to be 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, of which 5 to 7 reach hurricane strength and 1 to 3 become major hurricanes.
Pre-season forecasts On December 7, 2001, Gray's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2002 season, predicting above-average activity (13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and about 2 of Category 3 or higher). It listed an 86 percent chance of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. mainland. This included a 58 percent chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, and a 43 percent chance of at least one such strike on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward. The potential for major hurricane activity in the Caribbean was forecast to be above average.
On April 5 a new forecast was issued, calling for 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes. The decrease in the forecast was attributed to the further intensification of El Niño conditions. The estimated potential for at least one major hurricane to affect the U.S. was decreased to 75 percent; the East Coast potential decreased slightly to 57 percent, and from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, the probability remained the same.
NOAA issued their first seasonal forecast on May 20, predicting 9–13 named storms, 6–8 hurricanes, and 2–3 major hurricanes. The government agency stated that the season would most likely be near-average because of a combination of the ongoing high-activity era and an expected weak El Niño, but acknowledged some uncertainty existed due to a lack of strong El Niño or La Niña conditions. Mid-season forecasts On August 7, Gray's team lowered its season estimate to 9 named storms, with 4 becoming hurricanes and 1 becoming a major hurricane, noting that conditions had become less favorable for storms than they had been earlier in the year. The sea-level pressure and trade wind strength in the tropical Atlantic were reported to be above normal, while sea surface temperature anomalies were on a decreasing trend.
On August 8, NOAA revised its season estimate to 7–10 named storms, with 4–6 becoming hurricanes and 1–3 becoming major hurricanes. The reduction was attributed to less favorable environmental conditions and building El Niño conditions.
Gray and his forecast team at CSU decreased their seasonal predictions again on September 3, calling for 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, with Gray noting an "unusual and unexpected massive rearrangement of global ocean and atmospheric conditions the last three to four months". This included below normal sea surface temperatures, an intensifying El Niño, and abnormally strong sea-level pressure, easterly trade winds, and upper tropospheric westerly winds.
Seasonal summary
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2002. It was a near-average season in which 14 tropical cyclones formed. Twelve depressions attained tropical storm status, and four of these reached hurricane status. Two hurricanes further intensified into major hurricanes. Activity was suppressed somewhat by an El Niño, which was of near-moderate intensity by August. A near-record eight named storms made landfall in the United States, four of them came ashore in Louisiana. Overall, the Atlantic tropical cyclones of 2002 collectively resulted in 50 deaths and around $2.43 billion in damage. The season ended on November 30, 2002.
Tropical cyclogenesis began with Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed just offshore North Carolina on July 14. Following the storm's extratropical transition on July 16, no further activity occurred until Tropical Storm Bertha developed near Louisiana on August 4. Cristobal formed on the next day, while Dolly developed on August 29. September featured eight named storms, a record which was later tied in 2007 and 2010 and surpassed in 2020. During that month, Gustav reached hurricane intensity on September 11, the latest date of the first hurricane in a season since 1941, and tied the 2013 season for the latest date of the first hurricane in the satellite era, later broken in 2026. While the long-lasting Kyle and Lili persisted into October, only one tropical cyclone developed that month, Tropical Depression Fourteen on October 14. The depression was absorbed by a cold front while crossing Cuba two days later, ending seasonal activity.
The season's activity was reflected with a low accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) rating of 67, the lowest total since 1997. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. It is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding , which is the threshold for tropical storm status.
Systems Tropical Storm Arthur
A dissipating cold front stalled over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in early July, producing a weak low-level circulation on July 9. The system then drifted for a few days, until a mid-level trough moved the circulation across the southeastern United States on July 13. On the next day, the system moved along the coast of the Carolinas, producing an organized area of convection over its center, which became, Tropical Depression One several hours later about west-southwest of Hatteras, North Carolina, A deepening mid-level low south of Atlantic Canada caused the depression to move quickly east-northeastward and cross the Gulf Stream, allowing it to intensify into Tropical Storm Arthur on July 15 as rainbands developed. Arthur peaked with winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a minimum pressure of early on July 16. Thereafter, the center became separated from the area of deepest convection, and Arthur became an extratropical cyclone on July 16 about south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. The storm turned northward around a larger mid-level low, moving over eastern Newfoundland before drifting southeastward between Newfoundland and Greenland on July 19, and by late in the day its winds decreased to below gale-force.
The precursor tropical disturbance dropped rainfall across Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, peaking at in Weston, Florida. The system produced scattered precipitation across North Carolina, generally between . On July 16, Arthur passed north of Bermuda, where it brought gusty winds and of rainfall. As an extratropical storm, Arthur produced gusty winds and dropped about of rainfall in Newfoundland. Strong waves capsized a boat in the Conne River, killing one person.
Tropical Storm Bertha
In early August, a surface trough extended from the northern Gulf of Mexico across Florida into the western Atlantic Ocean. The eastern portion ultimately became Tropical Storm Cristobal. The western portion developed into a low pressure area on August 3 over the Gulf of Mexico. Late on August 4, the low organized into Tropical Depression Two just east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It soon strengthened into Tropical Storm Bertha, as outflow and rainbands developed. At 02:00 UTC, Bertha made landfall near Boothville, Louisiana with peak winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). After crossing Lake Pontchartrain, the storm fell to tropical depression status. The track shifted to the southwest, steered around the periphery of a ridge. Bertha emerged back over the Gulf of Mexico again on August 7, developing intermittent thunderstorms. However, it failed to restrengthen due to proximity to land. On August 9, Bertha made its second and final landfall near Kingsville, Texas as a tropical depression, dissipating ten hours later.
The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning from Pascagoula, Mississippi to the mouth of the Mississippi River, shortly before Bertha made landfall. The National Weather Service advised boats along the Gulf coast to remain at port. The service also issued a coastal flood watch from Alabama through the Florida Panhandle. A flood watch was issued for portions of eastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi. The precursor to Bertha generated rip currents along the Florida coastline. In Perdido Key State Recreation Area, one person drowned, and two children required rescue from the currents. Rainfall in Florida reached near Clermont. The highest rainfall in Alabama was in Coden. Upon Bertha making landfall, Waveland, Mississippi recorded a peak storm surge of . Sustained winds there peaked at , and a peak gust of . Rainfall from Bertha reached in Pascagoula. In Moss Point, the rainfall resulted in flooding which entered at least 15 houses and several cars. The rainfall also flooded roadways and streets. Damage in Mississippi totaled to at least $50,000 (2002 USD). The storm dropped heavy rainfall in Louisiana, which peaked at in Norwood. The mouth of the Bayou Dupre recorded a storm tide of . The rainfall led to flash flooding, which entered buildings in East Feliciana Parish while also covering roads and bridges. Rivers overflowed in St. Tammany Parish. Damage in Louisiana totaled $150,000 (2002 USD). In Texas, Bertha produced a storm tide of at Baffin Bay. Rainfall in the state reached in Dumas.
Tropical Storm Cristobal